Football · Colombia Cup · 22/07, 02:30
Prediction: America de Cali vs Real Cartagena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
America de Cali2
Real Cartagena0.8
1X2
America de Cali
Draw
Real Cartagena
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
America de Cali
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Real Cartagena
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
America de Cali
4–1–1
Real Cartagena
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · America de Cali 1529 · Real Cartagena 1511
| America de Cali | Draw | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours America de Cali: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| America de Cali | Real Cartagena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.6 | 2.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · America de Cali 4–1–1 Real Cartagena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/16 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 0-2 HT 0-1 | America de Cali |
| 08/11/16 Colombia Primera B | America de Cali | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Real Cartagena |
| 29/09/16 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-2 HT 0-1 | America de Cali |
| 10/05/16 Colombia Primera B | America de Cali | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Real Cartagena |
| 27/11/15 Colombia Primera B | America de Cali | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Real Cartagena |
| 16/11/15 Colombia Primera B | Real Cartagena | 2-1 HT 0-0 | America de Cali |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
America de Cali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Houston Dynamo Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/07 | Unam Pumas America Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/07 | Santos Laguna America Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | Macara Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 20/05 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 13/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 07/05 | Alianza Atletico Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
Real Cartagena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 03/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/04 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 14/04 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in America de Cali vs Real Cartagena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a America de Cali win (65%). Probabilities: America de Cali 65%, draw 22%, Real Cartagena 13%.
How many goals are expected in America de Cali vs Real Cartagena?
The model expects 2.8 goals (America de Cali 2 · Real Cartagena 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in America de Cali vs Real Cartagena?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.