Football · Colombia Cup · 23/07, 02:30
Prediction: Junior vs Barranquilla FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Junior2.3
Barranquilla FC0.68
1X2
Junior
Draw
Barranquilla FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Junior
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Barranquilla FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Junior
3–3–0
Barranquilla FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Junior 1534 · Barranquilla FC 1492
| Junior | Draw | Barranquilla FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | 75% | 14% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Junior (rating 1534 vs 1492).
- H2H favours Junior: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Junior | Barranquilla FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 1.7 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.4 | 5.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Junior 3–3–0 Barranquilla FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/17 Colombia Cup | Barranquilla FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Junior |
| 15/03/17 Colombia Cup | Junior | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Barranquilla FC |
| 19/03/15 Colombia Cup | Barranquilla FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Junior |
| 04/03/15 Colombia Cup | Junior | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Barranquilla FC |
| 14/08/14 Colombia Cup | Barranquilla FC | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Junior |
| 07/07/14 Colombia Cup | Junior | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Barranquilla FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Junior
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 03/06 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/05 | Palmeiras Copa Libertadores |
1-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores |
3-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 12 | D |
| 11/05 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 4-3 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 29/04 | Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Barranquilla FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 13/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/04 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 08/04 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/03 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Junior vs Barranquilla FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Junior win (74%). Probabilities: Junior 74%, draw 16%, Barranquilla FC 10%.
How many goals are expected in Junior vs Barranquilla FC?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Junior 2.3 · Barranquilla FC 0.68), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Junior vs Barranquilla FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.