Football · Colombia Cup · 22/07, 02:00
Prediction: Once Caldas vs Envigado FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Once Caldas1.81
Envigado FC0.89
1X2
Once Caldas
Draw
Envigado FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Once Caldas
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Envigado FC
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Once Caldas
4–2–0
Envigado FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Once Caldas 1514 · Envigado FC 1541
| Once Caldas | Draw | Envigado FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Once Caldas: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Once Caldas | Envigado FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Once Caldas 4–2–0 Envigado FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/25 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Envigado FC |
| 01/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Envigado FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Once Caldas |
| 21/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Envigado FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Once Caldas |
| 10/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Envigado FC |
| 16/09/23 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Envigado FC |
| 01/04/23 Colombia Primera A | Envigado FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Once Caldas |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Once Caldas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 12 | D |
| 11/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 9 | D |
| 21/04 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/04 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/03 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 22/03 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/03 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Envigado FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 15/05 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Once Caldas vs Envigado FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Once Caldas win (58%). Probabilities: Once Caldas 58%, draw 25%, Envigado FC 17%.
How many goals are expected in Once Caldas vs Envigado FC?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Once Caldas 1.81 · Envigado FC 0.89), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Envigado FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.