Football · Colombia Cup · 22/07, 02:00
Prediction: Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Deportivo Pasto2.22
Bogota FC0.74
1X2
Deportivo Pasto
Draw
Bogota FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Pasto
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Bogota FC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Pasto 1482 · Bogota FC 1492
| Deportivo Pasto | Draw | Bogota FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Pasto | Bogota FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 1.5 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.6 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Pasto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 01/04 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 30/03 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 25/03 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/03 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Bogota FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/04 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/04 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/03 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Pasto win (71%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 71%, draw 19%, Bogota FC 10%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota FC?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Deportivo Pasto 2.22 · Bogota FC 0.74), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Bogota FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.