Football · Brazil Serie D · 18/07, 23:30
Prediction: Goiatuba vs Ferroviario
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.9Total
Goiatuba0.99
Ferroviario0.92
1X2
Goiatuba
Draw
Ferroviario
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Goiatuba
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Ferroviario
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Goiatuba 1525 · Ferroviario 1567
| Goiatuba | Draw | Ferroviario | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 34% | 31% |
| Market | 36% | 32% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferroviario (rating 1525 vs 1567).
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Goiatuba | Ferroviario | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 1.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.8 | 2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.1 | 5.7 / 0.4 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A7
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviario | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Piaui | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Fluminense PI | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | AE Altos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 5 | CEFAT Tirol | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Atlético Cearense | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 7 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Goiatuba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
Ferroviario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 04/07 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 21/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/06 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Goiatuba vs Ferroviario?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Goiatuba win (35%). Probabilities: Goiatuba 35%, draw 33%, Ferroviario 31%.
How many goals are expected in Goiatuba vs Ferroviario?
The model expects 1.9 goals (Goiatuba 0.99 · Ferroviario 0.92), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Goiatuba vs Ferroviario?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.