Football · Brazil Serie D · 26/07, 22:00

Prediction: Treze vs Sao Jose PA

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.87Total

Treze1.16

Sao Jose PA0.7

1X2

46% 32% 22%

Treze Draw Sao Jose PA

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Treze 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDLWL

Sao Jose PA 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Treze 0–1 Sao Jose PA (1 last)

Sao Jose PA2-1Treze

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Treze 1505 · Sao Jose PA 1556

	Treze	Draw	Sao Jose PA
Our model	46%	33%	21%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.87 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Jose PA (rating 1505 vs 1556).
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Treze	Sao Jose PA
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X2.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +1’	1.90	2.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Treze 0–0–1 Sao Jose PA

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Serie D	Sao Jose PA	2-1 HT 1-1	Treze

Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A16

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blumenau EC	10	6	1	3	14	8	19
2	Marcilio Dias	10	4	4	2	9	5	16
3	Sao Joseense	10	3	4	3	3	4	13
4	Sao Jose PA	10	3	4	3	6	8	13
5	Brasil de Pelotas	10	2	4	4	9	12	10
6	Azuriz FC	10	2	3	5	7	11	9

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Treze

WWLDLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Sao Jose PA Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
12/07	CRAC Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	10	6	W
04/07	CRAC Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-2	8	10	L
28/06	Jacuipense Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
21/06	Jacuipense Brazil Serie D	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
14/06	Retro FC Brasil Brazil Serie D	0-1	0-3	8	7	L
06/06	Decisao Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
30/05	Lagarto Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
23/05	CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
16/05	Serra Branca EC Brazil Serie D	0-0	2-1	2	6	W

Sao Jose PA

WDDWWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Treze Brazil Serie D	1-1	2-1	2	7	W
12/07	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
04/07	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
27/06	Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
21/06	Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/06	Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
01/06	Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
24/05	Marcilio Dias Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
17/05	Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Serie D	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
10/05	Azuriz FC Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Treze vs Sao Jose PA?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Treze win (46%). Probabilities: Treze 46%, draw 32%, Sao Jose PA 22%.

How many goals are expected in Treze vs Sao Jose PA?

The model expects 1.87 goals (Treze 1.16 · Sao Jose PA 0.7), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Treze vs Sao Jose PA?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.