Football · Brazil Serie D · 26/07, 22:00
Prediction: ABC vs Luverdense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
ABC1.75
Luverdense0.48
1X2
ABC
Draw
Luverdense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
ABC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Luverdense
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ABC
0–3–3
Luverdense
(6 last)
- Luverdense0-0ABC
- ABC0-1Luverdense
- Luverdense1-0ABC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ABC 1519 · Luverdense 1525
| ABC | Draw | Luverdense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 24% | 9% |
| Market | 68% | 23% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Luverdense: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ABC | Luverdense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 8.1 | 2.4 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ABC 0–3–3 Luverdense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Luverdense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | ABC |
| 04/11/17 Brazil Serie B | ABC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Luverdense |
| 16/07/17 Brazil Serie B | Luverdense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | ABC |
| 02/09/15 Brazil Serie B | Luverdense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | ABC |
| 24/05/15 Brazil Serie B | ABC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Luverdense |
| 19/10/14 Brazil Serie B | ABC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Luverdense |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A8
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | America RN | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 21 |
| 3 | Maguary PE | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Central SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Sousa EC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Laguna RN | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ABC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 21/05 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-2 | 2-6 | 2 | 9 | L |
Luverdense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | ABC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | Guaporé RO Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Guaporé RO Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Inhumas Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | Aparecidense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | AC Primavera Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | SE Gama Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ABC vs Luverdense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ABC win (68%). Probabilities: ABC 68%, draw 23%, Luverdense 9%.
How many goals are expected in ABC vs Luverdense?
The model expects 2.23 goals (ABC 1.75 · Luverdense 0.48), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in ABC vs Luverdense?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.