Football · Brazil Serie D · 26/07, 22:00
Prediction: ASA vs Cianorte
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.79Total
ASA1.14
Cianorte0.65
1X2
ASA
Draw
Cianorte
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
ASA
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Cianorte
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ASA
1–0
Cianorte
(1 last)
- Cianorte0-1ASA
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ASA 1575 · Cianorte 1500
| ASA | Draw | Cianorte | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 34% | 20% |
| Market | 48% | 31% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASA (rating 1575 vs 1500).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ASA | Cianorte | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 6 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 6.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ASA 1–0–0 Cianorte
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Cianorte | 0-1 HT 0-0 | ASA |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A15
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Cianorte | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Cascavel | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Sao Luiz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Joinville | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Guarany de Bage | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ASA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 07/07 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 13 | D |
| 14/06 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | CSA Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
Cianorte
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 20/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ASA vs Cianorte?
According to our model, the most likely result is a ASA win (47%). Probabilities: ASA 47%, draw 32%, Cianorte 20%.
How many goals are expected in ASA vs Cianorte?
The model expects 1.79 goals (ASA 1.14 · Cianorte 0.65), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in ASA vs Cianorte?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.