Football · Brazil Serie D · 26/07, 22:00
Prediction: Ferroviario vs Goiatuba
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.96Total
Ferroviario1.37
Goiatuba0.59
1X2
Ferroviario
Draw
Goiatuba
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ferroviario
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Goiatuba
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ferroviario
0–1
Goiatuba
(1 last)
- Goiatuba3-0Ferroviario
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ferroviario 1543 · Goiatuba 1530
| Ferroviario | Draw | Goiatuba | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 30% | 15% |
| Market | 55% | 29% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ferroviario | Goiatuba | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.1 | 3.2 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.4 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviario 0–0–1 Goiatuba
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Brazil Serie D | Goiatuba | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Ferroviario |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A7
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviario | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Piaui | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Fluminense PI | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | AE Altos | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 11 |
| 5 | CEFAT Tirol | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 6 | FC Atlético Cearense | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 7 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ferroviario
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Goiatuba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 04/07 | Imperatriz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 28/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 21/06 | Central SC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | Fluminense PI Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/06 | CEFAT Tirol Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | FC Atlético Cearense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/05 | Piaui Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Goiatuba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Ferroviario Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 04/07 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Brasiliense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Operario VG Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Ceilandia Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Mixto Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Uniao Rondonopolis Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ferroviario vs Goiatuba?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviario win (55%). Probabilities: Ferroviario 55%, draw 30%, Goiatuba 15%.
How many goals are expected in Ferroviario vs Goiatuba?
The model expects 1.96 goals (Ferroviario 1.37 · Goiatuba 0.59), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Ferroviario vs Goiatuba?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.