Football · Brazil Serie D · 18/07, 21:00
Prediction: Nacional AM vs Iguatu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.1Total
Nacional AM1.2
Iguatu0.9
1X2
Nacional AM
Draw
Iguatu
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional AM
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Iguatu
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional AM 1503 · Iguatu 1563
| Nacional AM | Draw | Iguatu | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Market | 42% | 32% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iguatu (rating 1503 vs 1563).
- Cards-heavy: 12.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional AM | Iguatu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.9 | 1.6 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.2 | 7.1 / 0.1 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A6
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iguatu | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Maracanã | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Parnahyba | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| 4 | Sampaio Correa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Moto Club | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 9 |
| 6 | IAPE | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 20 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional AM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | GA Sampaio Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Manauara EC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
Iguatu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 04/07 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 27/06 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/06 | Tuna Luso Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/06 | Sampaio Correa Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Parnahyba Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | IAPE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Maracanã Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 11 | D |
| 10/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Moto Club Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional AM vs Iguatu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional AM win (42%). Probabilities: Nacional AM 42%, draw 32%, Iguatu 26%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional AM vs Iguatu?
The model expects 2.1 goals (Nacional AM 1.2 · Iguatu 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional AM vs Iguatu?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.