Football · Brazil Serie D · 18/07, 21:00
Prediction: Cianorte vs ASA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.77Total
Cianorte0.98
ASA0.79
1X2
Cianorte
Draw
ASA
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cianorte
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
ASA
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cianorte 1513 · ASA 1553
| Cianorte | Draw | ASA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 36% | 27% |
| Market | 40% | 32% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.77 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASA (rating 1513 vs 1553).
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cianorte | ASA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 2.9 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.6 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A15
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Cianorte | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Cascavel | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Sao Luiz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Joinville | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Guarany de Bage | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cianorte
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 20/06 | Sao Joseense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Sao Luiz Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 07/05 | America MG Brazil Copa Sul-Sudeste |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
ASA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 07/07 | Ivinhema Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 21/06 | CS Sergipe Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 13 | D |
| 14/06 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | CSA Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 07/05 | Sport Recife Brazil Copa Nordeste |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cianorte vs ASA?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cianorte win (39%). Probabilities: Cianorte 39%, draw 34%, ASA 28%.
How many goals are expected in Cianorte vs ASA?
The model expects 1.77 goals (Cianorte 0.98 · ASA 0.79), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cianorte vs ASA?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.