Football · Brazil Serie D · 19/07, 16:00
Prediction: Sao Luiz vs CSA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Sao Luiz1.07
CSA1.31
1X2
Sao Luiz
Draw
CSA
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sao Luiz
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
CSA
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sao Luiz 1514 · CSA 1571
| Sao Luiz | Draw | CSA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Market | 29% | 31% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSA (rating 1514 vs 1571).
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sao Luiz | CSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.9 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 2.4 | 3.1 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.4 / 0.6 | 5.4 / 0.2 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A15
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santa Catarina | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Cianorte | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | FC Cascavel | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Sao Luiz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Joinville | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Guarany de Bage | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sao Luiz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 10 | W |
| 05/07 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 9 | D |
| 20/06 | Blumenau EC Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 07/06 | Joinville Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | FC Cascavel Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Santa Catarina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
CSA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 04/07 | Betim FC Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Lagarto Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | Atletico Alagoinhas Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 7-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Jacuipense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 23/05 | ASA Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 17/05 | CSE Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Juazeirense Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sao Luiz vs CSA?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSA win (41%). Probabilities: Sao Luiz 29%, draw 31%, CSA 41%.
How many goals are expected in Sao Luiz vs CSA?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Sao Luiz 1.07 · CSA 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sao Luiz vs CSA?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.