Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 18/07, 20:00
Prediction: Carapegua vs Guairena FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Carapegua1.31
Guairena FC1.39
1X2
Carapegua
Draw
Guairena FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Carapegua
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Guairena FC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carapegua
0–4–0
Guairena FC
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carapegua 1450 · Guairena FC 1527
| Carapegua | Draw | Guairena FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guairena FC (rating 1450 vs 1527).
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carapegua | Guairena FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.9 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.2 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 2.2 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 0–4–0 Guairena FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Carapegua | 3-3 HT 2-3 | Guairena FC |
| 09/05/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Guairena FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Carapegua |
| 21/09/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Guairena FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Carapegua |
| 15/06/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia | Carapegua | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Guairena FC |
Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 30 |
| 2 | Club Dr Benjamin Aceval | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | General Caballero JLM | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 27 |
| 4 | Deportivo Santaní | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 24 |
| 5 | Sol de America | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Club Atlético Tembetary | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| 7 | Guairena FC | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
| 8 | Deportivo Capiata | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 21 |
| 9 | Independiente FBC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 10 | Resistencia FC | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 18 |
| 11 | Carapegua | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 16 |
| 12 | Fernando de la Mora | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Tacuary | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 23 | 13 |
| 14 | Paraguari AC | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 15 | Encarnacion FC | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 22 | 8 |
| 16 | 3 de Noviembre | 14 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carapegua | Guairena FC |
|---|---|---|
| Resistencia FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Sol de America | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Capiata | 2-5 L | 3-1 W |
| Paraguari AC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Encarnacion FC | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Guairena FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carapegua
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 05/07 | Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 27/06 | Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-2 | 2-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
Guairena FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | 12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/07 | Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/07 | Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 0-2 | 12 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 01/06 | 3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 26/05 | General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 20/05 | Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 16/05 | Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 12/05 | Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 01/05 | Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia |
0-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Guairena FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Guairena FC win (38%). Probabilities: Carapegua 34%, draw 28%, Guairena FC 38%.
How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Guairena FC?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Carapegua 1.31 · Guairena FC 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Guairena FC?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.