Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 23/08, 17:30
Prediction: NK Sobec Lesce vs Svoboda Ljubljana
Team pages: NK Sobec Lesce · Svoboda Ljubljana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
NK Sobec Lesce1.73
Svoboda Ljubljana0.98
1X2
NK Sobec Lesce
Draw
Svoboda Ljubljana
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
NK Sobec Lesce
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Svoboda Ljubljana
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NK Sobec Lesce
2–3–0
Svoboda Ljubljana
(5 last)
- NK Sobec Lesce0-0Svoboda Ljubljana
- Svoboda Ljubljana0-1NK Sobec Lesce
- Svoboda Ljubljana1-2NK Sobec Lesce
- NK Sobec Lesce0-0Svoboda Ljubljana
- Svoboda Ljubljana0-0NK Sobec Lesce
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NK Sobec Lesce 1494 · Svoboda Ljubljana 1451
| NK Sobec Lesce | Draw | Svoboda Ljubljana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 22% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Sobec Lesce (rating 1494 vs 1451).
- H2H favours NK Sobec Lesce: 2-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NK Sobec Lesce | Svoboda Ljubljana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 0/40/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.4 | 1.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sobec Lesce 2–3–0 Svoboda Ljubljana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL | NK Sobec Lesce | 0-0 | Svoboda Ljubljana |
| 20/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL | Svoboda Ljubljana | 0-1 | NK Sobec Lesce |
| 22/03/25 Slovenia 3. SNL | Svoboda Ljubljana | 1-2 HT 0-0 | NK Sobec Lesce |
| 22/04/23 Slovenia 3. SNL | NK Sobec Lesce | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Svoboda Ljubljana |
| 12/10/22 Slovenia 3. SNL | Svoboda Ljubljana | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NK Sobec Lesce |
Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MNK Izola | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | NK Skofja Loka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | NK Sencur | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | ND Idrija | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Roltek DOB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | NK Tolmin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | NK Ziri | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | NK Adria Miren | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 9 | NK Sobec Lesce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | NK Rudar Trbovlje | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Svoboda Ljubljana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | NK IB 1975 Ljubljana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 | NK Litija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | NK Fama Vipava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NK Sobec Lesce | Svoboda Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|
| NK Rudar Trbovlje | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| NK IB 1975 Ljubljana | 4-1 W | 0-3 L |
| MNK Izola | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| NK Vrhnika | 1-5 L | 1-5 L |
| Roltek DOB | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| NK Sencur | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| NK Fama Vipava | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NK Sobec Lesce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL |
1-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/04 | NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/04 | Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/03 | ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Svoboda Ljubljana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 29/03 | NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NK Sobec Lesce vs Svoboda Ljubljana?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Sobec Lesce win (55%). Probabilities: NK Sobec Lesce 55%, draw 24%, Svoboda Ljubljana 21%.
How many goals are expected in NK Sobec Lesce vs Svoboda Ljubljana?
The model expects 2.72 goals (NK Sobec Lesce 1.73 · Svoboda Ljubljana 0.98), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in NK Sobec Lesce vs Svoboda Ljubljana?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.