Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: NK Sobec Lesce vs ND Idrija

Team pages: NK Sobec Lesce · ND Idrija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

NK Sobec Lesce1.66

ND Idrija1.08

1X2

51% 25% 24%

NK Sobec Lesce Draw ND Idrija

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Sobec Lesce 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDWLLWDD

ND Idrija 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDDWW

Head-to-head

NK Sobec Lesce 2–0 ND Idrija (2 last)

NK Sobec Lesce4-0ND Idrija
ND Idrija1-2NK Sobec Lesce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Sobec Lesce 1498 · ND Idrija 1499

	NK Sobec Lesce	Draw	ND Idrija
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Sobec Lesce: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Sobec Lesce	ND Idrija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:06 +8’	1.75	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sobec Lesce 2–0–0 ND Idrija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sobec Lesce	4-0	ND Idrija
23/08/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	ND Idrija	1-2	NK Sobec Lesce

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	2	2	0	0	8	2	6
2	ND Idrija	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	Roltek DOB	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
4	NK Sencur	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
5	NK Ziri	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	NK Rudar Trbovlje	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	NK Skofja Loka	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
8	NK Tolmin	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
9	NK Sobec Lesce	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	Svoboda Ljubljana	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	NK Adria Miren	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
12	NK Litija	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
13	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
14	NK Fama Vipava	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Sobec Lesce	ND Idrija
Svoboda Ljubljana	1-1 D	1-0 W
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	4-1 W	2-0 W
MNK Izola	1-2 L	1-3 L
NK Vrhnika	1-5 L	1-2 L
NK Fama Vipava	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: ND Idrija (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Sobec Lesce

DDLDWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	4-1	4	2	W
17/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	1-5	4	4	L
02/05	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
25/04	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
17/04	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/04	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
04/04	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D

ND Idrija

LLWLWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
23/05	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
17/05	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/05	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
02/05	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/04	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
04/04	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Sobec Lesce vs ND Idrija?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Sobec Lesce win (51%). Probabilities: NK Sobec Lesce 51%, draw 25%, ND Idrija 24%.

How many goals are expected in NK Sobec Lesce vs ND Idrija?

The model expects 2.74 goals (NK Sobec Lesce 1.66 · ND Idrija 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Sobec Lesce vs ND Idrija?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.