Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: NK Skofja Loka vs NK Sencur

Team pages: NK Skofja Loka · NK Sencur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

NK Skofja Loka1.4

NK Sencur2

1X2

25% 25% 50%

NK Skofja Loka Draw NK Sencur

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Skofja Loka 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLLWL

NK Sencur 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWLWD

Head-to-head

NK Skofja Loka 0–2–3 NK Sencur (5 last)

NK Skofja Loka0-5NK Sencur
NK Sencur1-1NK Skofja Loka
NK Skofja Loka0-0NK Sencur
NK Sencur2-1NK Skofja Loka
NK Sencur5-0NK Skofja Loka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Skofja Loka 1471 · NK Sencur 1588

	NK Skofja Loka	Draw	NK Sencur
Our model	26%	24%	51%
Market	24%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Sencur (rating 1471 vs 1588).
H2H favours NK Sencur: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Skofja Loka	NK Sencur
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	1.4 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
22:51 +24’	3.70	3.40	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Skofja Loka 0–2–3 NK Sencur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Slovenia Cup	NK Skofja Loka	0-5 HT 0-4	NK Sencur
07/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	1-1	NK Skofja Loka
23/08/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Skofja Loka	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Sencur
29/10/22 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Skofja Loka
28/08/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	5-0 HT 5-0	NK Skofja Loka

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	2	2	0	0	8	2	6
2	ND Idrija	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	Roltek DOB	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
4	NK Sencur	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
5	NK Ziri	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
6	NK Rudar Trbovlje	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	NK Skofja Loka	2	1	0	1	5	4	3
8	NK Tolmin	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
9	NK Sobec Lesce	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	Svoboda Ljubljana	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
11	NK Adria Miren	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
12	NK Litija	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
13	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	2	0	0	2	0	5	0
14	NK Fama Vipava	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Skofja Loka	NK Sencur
Roltek DOB	0-4 L	1-0 W
NK Fama Vipava	5-0 W	1-1 D
Svoboda Ljubljana	1-2 L	0-0 D
ND Bistrc	3-4 L	5-1 W
NK Tolmin	1-3 L	3-3 D
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	1-1 D	3-0 W
MNK Izola	1-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Sencur (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Skofja Loka

LDLWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
15/08	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	5-0	11	4	W
23/05	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W
02/05	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
25/04	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/04	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
04/04	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	7	6	L

NK Sencur

WDWDWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
14/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
09/05	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	3	10	W
25/04	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
17/04	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
03/04	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	5-1	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Skofja Loka vs NK Sencur?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Sencur win (50%). Probabilities: NK Skofja Loka 25%, draw 25%, NK Sencur 50%.

How many goals are expected in NK Skofja Loka vs NK Sencur?

The model expects 3.4 goals (NK Skofja Loka 1.4 · NK Sencur 2), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Skofja Loka vs NK Sencur?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.