Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 26/08, 17:30

Prediction: NK Race vs NK Korotan Prevalje

Team pages: NK Race · NK Korotan Prevalje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

NK Race1.75

NK Korotan Prevalje1.48

1X2

43% 25% 32%

NK Race Draw NK Korotan Prevalje

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Race 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDLWDL

NK Korotan Prevalje 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLWD

Head-to-head

NK Race 3–2 NK Korotan Prevalje (5 last)

NK Race1-3NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Korotan Prevalje0-3NK Race
NK Korotan Prevalje2-1NK Race
NK Race3-1NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Race3-1NK Korotan Prevalje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Race 1483 · NK Korotan Prevalje 1516

	NK Race	Draw	NK Korotan Prevalje
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Race: 3-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Race	NK Korotan Prevalje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 7	2 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.00 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +3’	2.25	3.60	2.55
05:55 +7’	2.05▼	3.60	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +1’	2.01	3.45	2.96
16:05 +2’	2.03▲	3.50▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Race 3–0–2 NK Korotan Prevalje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Race	1-3 HT 0-2	NK Korotan Prevalje
03/09/25 Slovenia Cup	NK Korotan Prevalje	0-3 HT 0-2	NK Race
16/08/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Korotan Prevalje	2-1	NK Race
04/09/24 Slovenia Cup	NK Race	3-1 HT 2-0	NK Korotan Prevalje
25/05/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Race	3-1 HT 2-0	NK Korotan Prevalje

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	NK Ormoz	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	NK Korotan Prevalje	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	NK Hajdina	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	NK Fuzinar	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	SD Videm	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
7	NK Ljutomer	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
8	Carda Martjanci	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
9	NK Limbus Pekre	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	NK Sampion Celje	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
11	NK Podvinci	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
12	NK Race	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	NK Smartno	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	NK Dobrovce	2	0	0	2	1	6	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Race	NK Korotan Prevalje
NK Hajdina	1-1 D	2-0 W
NK Smartno	1-0 W	0-0 D
Carda Martjanci	0-2 L	1-5 L
NK Podvinci	3-1 W	1-3 L
NK Fuzinar	1-5 L	3-2 W
SD Videm	1-1 D	4-2 W
NK Dobrovce	5-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Race (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Race

WDLWLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/05	Carda Martjanci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
25/04	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/04	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
11/04	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
04/04	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-1	–	–	W

NK Korotan Prevalje

LWDWWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-2	–	–	W
23/05	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W
09/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-5	–	–	L
05/05	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	2	6	W
24/04	NK Rogaska Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
11/04	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	2-2	2-2	1	7	D
04/04	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	2-0	2	11	W
29/03	Carda Martjanci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-5	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Race vs NK Korotan Prevalje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Race win (43%). Probabilities: NK Race 43%, draw 25%, NK Korotan Prevalje 32%.

How many goals are expected in NK Race vs NK Korotan Prevalje?

The model expects 3.23 goals (NK Race 1.75 · NK Korotan Prevalje 1.48), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Race vs NK Korotan Prevalje?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.