Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: NK Smartno vs SD Videm

Team pages: NK Smartno · SD Videm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

NK Smartno1.45

SD Videm1.96

1X2

28% 24% 49%

NK Smartno Draw SD Videm

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Smartno 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWLLD

SD Videm 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWLLW

Head-to-head

NK Smartno 2–1–3 SD Videm (6 last)

SD Videm5-2NK Smartno
NK Smartno1-2SD Videm
SD Videm2-3NK Smartno
NK Smartno0-2SD Videm
SD Videm3-3NK Smartno
NK Smartno3-1SD Videm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Smartno 1498 · SD Videm 1540

	NK Smartno	Draw	SD Videm
Our model	28%	24%	48%
Market	28%	23%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Videm (rating 1498 vs 1540).
H2H favours SD Videm: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Smartno	SD Videm
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	– / 6.7	– / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.80

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:09 +5’	3.20	3.80	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Smartno 2–1–3 SD Videm

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	5-2 HT 2-1	NK Smartno
19/10/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	1-2 HT 1-0	SD Videm
27/04/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	2-3 HT 0-2	NK Smartno
13/10/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	0-2 HT 0-1	SD Videm
28/04/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	3-3 HT 1-2	NK Smartno
15/11/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Smartno	3-1 HT 0-1	SD Videm

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	NK Ormoz	2	2	0	0	6	3	6
3	NK Korotan Prevalje	3	1	2	0	4	2	5
4	NK Hajdina	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	NK Fuzinar	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	SD Videm	2	1	0	1	4	5	3
7	NK Ljutomer	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
8	Carda Martjanci	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
9	NK Limbus Pekre	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	NK Race	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
11	NK Sampion Celje	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	NK Podvinci	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
13	NK Smartno	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	NK Dobrovce	2	0	0	2	1	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Smartno	SD Videm
NK Korotan Prevalje	0-0 D	2-4 L
NK Race	0-1 L	1-1 D
NK Podvinci	2-0 W	1-0 W
NK Fuzinar	5-0 W	2-1 W
NK Ljutomer	3-2 W	4-6 L
NK Hajdina	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Smartno (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Smartno

WWWLLWWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/05	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
16/05	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/05	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	2-5	6	2	L
26/04	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
18/04	NK Rogaska Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
04/04	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W
29/03	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	2	6	W

SD Videm

WDWLWWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	1	7	W
15/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/05	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-6	–	–	L
16/05	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-2	–	–	W
03/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	5-2	4	2	W
25/04	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	10	W
11/04	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
04/04	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Smartno vs SD Videm?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SD Videm win (49%). Probabilities: NK Smartno 28%, draw 24%, SD Videm 49%.

How many goals are expected in NK Smartno vs SD Videm?

The model expects 3.41 goals (NK Smartno 1.45 · SD Videm 1.96), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Smartno vs SD Videm?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.