Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Skofja Loka vs NK Rudar Trbovlje

Team pages: NK Skofja Loka · NK Rudar Trbovlje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

NK Skofja Loka2.04

NK Rudar Trbovlje1.53

1X2

49% 23% 28%

NK Skofja Loka Draw NK Rudar Trbovlje

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Skofja Loka 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLDDWDL

NK Rudar Trbovlje 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDWWWLL

Head-to-head

NK Skofja Loka 1–2–0 NK Rudar Trbovlje (3 last)

NK Skofja Loka2-2NK Rudar Trbovlje
NK Rudar Trbovlje3-3NK Skofja Loka
NK Rudar Trbovlje0-2NK Skofja Loka

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Skofja Loka 1485 · NK Rudar Trbovlje 1484

	NK Skofja Loka	Draw	NK Rudar Trbovlje
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Skofja Loka	NK Rudar Trbovlje
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	0.7 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	5.8 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +5’	1.85	3.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Skofja Loka 1–2–0 NK Rudar Trbovlje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Skofja Loka	2-2	NK Rudar Trbovlje
31/08/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Rudar Trbovlje	3-3 HT 2-1	NK Skofja Loka
13/04/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Rudar Trbovlje	0-2 HT 0-0	NK Skofja Loka

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	7	7	0	0	34	4	21
2	Roltek DOB	7	5	1	1	18	6	16
3	ND Idrija	7	5	1	1	11	7	16
4	NK Tolmin	7	3	3	1	16	10	12
5	NK Sencur	7	3	3	1	13	9	12
6	NK Litija	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
7	NK Rudar Trbovlje	7	3	1	3	10	15	10
8	NK Skofja Loka	7	2	3	2	12	16	9
9	NK Adria Miren	7	2	1	4	11	14	7
10	NK Ziri	7	1	4	2	7	10	7
11	NK Fama Vipava	7	2	0	5	13	30	6
12	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	7	1	1	5	6	13	4
13	NK Sobec Lesce	7	0	3	4	6	13	3
14	Svoboda Ljubljana	7	0	1	6	5	19	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Skofja Loka	NK Rudar Trbovlje
NK Sencur	1-1 D	0-3 L
Roltek DOB	0-4 L	1-3 L
NK Fama Vipava	5-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: NK Skofja Loka (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Skofja Loka

WLLWLDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-6	–	–	L
20/09	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
05/09	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
22/08	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-4	0	6	L
15/08	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	5-0	11	4	W
23/05	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
16/05	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-4	–	–	L
10/05	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-0	–	–	W

NK Rudar Trbovlje

LLDLDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	5	0	L
13/09	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	1-3	0	7	L
06/09	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
16/05	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	3-3	3	10	D
10/05	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-2	1	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Skofja Loka vs NK Rudar Trbovlje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Skofja Loka win (49%). Probabilities: NK Skofja Loka 49%, draw 23%, NK Rudar Trbovlje 28%.

How many goals are expected in NK Skofja Loka vs NK Rudar Trbovlje?

The model expects 3.57 goals (NK Skofja Loka 2.04 · NK Rudar Trbovlje 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Skofja Loka vs NK Rudar Trbovlje?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.