Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Race vs NK Ljutomer

Team pages: NK Race · NK Ljutomer

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

NK Race1.56

NK Ljutomer1.22

1X2

44% 26% 29%

NK Race Draw NK Ljutomer

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Race 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLDLLDW

NK Ljutomer 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLDDLL

Head-to-head

NK Race 2–2–1 NK Ljutomer (5 last)

NK Race1-0NK Ljutomer
NK Ljutomer1-1NK Race
NK Ljutomer1-0NK Race
NK Race0-0NK Ljutomer
NK Ljutomer0-1NK Race

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Race 1503 · NK Ljutomer 1478

	NK Race	Draw	NK Ljutomer
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Race: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Race	NK Ljutomer
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	6.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:08 +30’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Race 2–2–1 NK Ljutomer

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Race	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Ljutomer
30/08/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ljutomer	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Race
18/11/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ljutomer	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Race
12/08/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Race	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Ljutomer
03/05/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ljutomer	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Race

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	7	6	1	0	24	11	19
2	NK Fuzinar	7	5	0	2	23	16	15
3	NK Smartno	7	4	1	2	18	14	13
4	NK Ormoz	7	4	1	2	17	11	13
5	NK Podvinci	8	4	1	3	13	15	13
6	NK Carda	7	3	2	2	18	13	11
7	NK Korotan Prevalje	7	2	4	1	9	7	10
8	NK Hajdina	7	2	3	2	13	15	9
9	NK Ljutomer	8	2	2	4	12	12	8
10	SD Videm	8	2	2	4	14	19	8
11	NK Race	7	1	3	3	7	9	6
12	NK Dobrovce	6	2	0	4	8	16	6
13	NK Sampion Celje	7	1	1	5	11	18	4
14	NK Limbus Pekre	7	1	1	5	6	17	4
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Race	NK Ljutomer
NK Podvinci	1-0 W	1-2 L
SD Videm	1-2 L	6-4 W
NK Smartno	1-2 L	1-2 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	0-0 D	1-1 D
NK Ormoz	1-2 L	1-1 D
NK Hajdina	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Race

DLWDLDLLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
19/09	NK Carda Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	2-2	3	7	D
11/09	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
05/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
22/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D

NK Ljutomer

DWWLWLDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-2	1	6	L
26/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
12/09	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	3	6	L
29/08	NK Sampion Celje Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
22/08	NK Odranci Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	1-3	6	12	L
15/08	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	SD Videm Slovenia 3. SNL	–	6-4	–	–	W
16/05	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Race vs NK Ljutomer?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Race win (44%). Probabilities: NK Race 44%, draw 26%, NK Ljutomer 29%.

How many goals are expected in NK Race vs NK Ljutomer?

The model expects 2.78 goals (NK Race 1.56 · NK Ljutomer 1.22), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Race vs NK Ljutomer?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.