Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 08/08, 03:00

Prediction: Tepatitlan FC vs Club Atletico La Paz

Team pages: Tepatitlan FC · Club Atletico La Paz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Tepatitlan FC1.47

Club Atletico La Paz0.99

1X2

47% 29% 24%

Tepatitlan FC Draw Club Atletico La Paz

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tepatitlan FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDDWWLLL

Club Atletico La Paz 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLDDLLLL

Head-to-head

Tepatitlan FC 3–1–2 Club Atletico La Paz (6 last)

Club Atletico La Paz1-1Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC0-1Club Atletico La Paz
Tepatitlan FC4-1Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz2-5Tepatitlan FC
Club Atletico La Paz2-0Tepatitlan FC
Tepatitlan FC4-0Club Atletico La Paz

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tepatitlan FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tepatitlan FC	Club Atletico La Paz
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.5	4.6 / 1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.97

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.68 → 1.69▲	Pinn 1.69
X	3.71 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.75
2	4.61 → 4.68▲	Pinn 4.68

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:19	1.68	3.71	4.61
06:12	1.69▲	3.75▲	4.68▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tepatitlan FC 3–1–2 Club Atletico La Paz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-1 HT 1-0	Tepatitlan FC
02/11/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Atletico La Paz
22/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	4-1 HT 3-1	Club Atletico La Paz
05/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-5 HT 1-2	Tepatitlan FC
24/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-0 HT 0-0	Tepatitlan FC
06/10/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tepatitlan FC	4-0 HT 1-0	Club Atletico La Paz

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Alacranes de Durango	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
3	Venados FC	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
4	Correcaminos	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
6	Tapatio	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Piratas	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Dorados	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
9	Atletico Morelia	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	Jaiba Brava	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
12	Cancun FC	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
13	Club Atletico La Paz	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
14	Tepatitlan FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
15	Tlaxcala FC	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
16	Oaxaca	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tepatitlan FC	Club Atletico La Paz
Alacranes de Durango	0-1 L	0-1 L
Jaiba Brava	0-2 L	1-2 L
Atlante	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tepatitlan FC

LWDDDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-3	6	5	L
25/07	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	7	8	L
24/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	8	8	W
17/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
10/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
04/05	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	5	8	D
27/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	7	10	W
24/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	3	5	L

Club Atletico La Paz

DWDLDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/07	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-4	0	7	L
26/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	7	9	L
23/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
18/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
11/04	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
04/04	Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
28/03	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
21/03	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	5	6	W
15/03	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tepatitlan FC vs Club Atletico La Paz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tepatitlan FC win (47%). Probabilities: Tepatitlan FC 47%, draw 29%, Club Atletico La Paz 24%.

How many goals are expected in Tepatitlan FC vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Tepatitlan FC 1.47 · Club Atletico La Paz 0.99), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tepatitlan FC vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.