Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: Venados FC vs Tapatio

Team pages: Venados FC · Tapatio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Venados FC1.73

Tapatio1.46

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Venados FC Draw Tapatio

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Venados FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDWDWD

Tapatio 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Venados FC 3–1–2 Tapatio (6 last)

Tapatio4-2Venados FC
Venados FC1-3Tapatio
Venados FC4-2Tapatio
Tapatio2-2Venados FC
Tapatio0-2Venados FC
Venados FC2-1Tapatio

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Venados FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Venados FC	Tapatio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.5	1.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:15

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.99 → 1.99	Pinn 1.99
X	3.58 → 3.58	Pinn 3.58
2	3.48 → 3.48	Pinn 3.48

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
07:15	1.99	3.58	3.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Venados FC 3–1–2 Tapatio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	4-2 HT 1-1	Venados FC
09/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	1-3 HT 1-2	Tapatio
06/03/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	4-2 HT 3-0	Tapatio
28/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	2-2 HT 0-0	Venados FC
11/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tapatio	0-2 HT 0-0	Venados FC
30/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Tapatio

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Alacranes de Durango	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
3	Venados FC	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
4	Correcaminos	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
6	Tapatio	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Piratas	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Dorados	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
9	Atletico Morelia	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
10	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	Jaiba Brava	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
12	Cancun FC	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
13	Club Atletico La Paz	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
14	Tepatitlan FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
15	Tlaxcala FC	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
16	Oaxaca	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Venados FC	Tapatio
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1 D	0-0 D
Oaxaca	3-0 W	3-4 L
Tlaxcala FC	2-2 D	3-0 W
Jaiba Brava	1-1 D	1-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	0-2 L	1-2 L
Atletico Morelia	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tapatio (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Venados FC

LLLLWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/07	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	12	1	W
19/04	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
12/04	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
06/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
28/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	4-1	1	7	W
21/03	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
07/03	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
28/02	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
15/02	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	5	4	L

Tapatio

LWLWLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	0	5	W
27/07	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
27/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
24/04	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
18/04	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	9	8	L
12/04	Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
08/04	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	1	4	W
30/03	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
23/03	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-1	1	2	W
14/03	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-3	3-4	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Venados FC vs Tapatio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Venados FC win (43%). Probabilities: Venados FC 43%, draw 25%, Tapatio 32%.

How many goals are expected in Venados FC vs Tapatio?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Venados FC 1.73 · Tapatio 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Venados FC vs Tapatio?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.