Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 28/08, 03:00

Prediction: Cancun FC vs Club Atletico La Paz

Team pages: Cancun FC · Club Atletico La Paz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Cancun FC1.82

Club Atletico La Paz1.11

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Cancun FC Draw Club Atletico La Paz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cancun FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDLLWW

Club Atletico La Paz 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Cancun FC 3–3–0 Club Atletico La Paz (6 last)

Cancun FC1-1Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz2-4Cancun FC
Cancun FC4-1Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz1-1Cancun FC
Cancun FC2-2Club Atletico La Paz
Club Atletico La Paz1-4Cancun FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cancun FC (rating 1518 vs 1467).
H2H favours Cancun FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cancun FC	Club Atletico La Paz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.9	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.6	4.9 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.99

Under 2.751.81

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:35

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.17 → 2.19▲	Pinn 2.19
X	3.43 → 3.47▲	Pinn 3.47
2	3.07 → 3.11▲	Pinn 3.11

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:44 +1’	2.17	3.43	3.07
04:35	2.19▲	3.47▲	3.11▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cancun FC 3–3–0 Club Atletico La Paz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Club Atletico La Paz
04/10/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	2-4 HT 1-3	Cancun FC
20/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	4-1 HT 2-0	Club Atletico La Paz
02/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-1 HT 0-1	Cancun FC
03/03/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	2-2 HT 0-2	Club Atletico La Paz
14/09/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Club Atletico La Paz	1-4 HT 1-2	Cancun FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	5	4	0	1	13	6	12
2	Correcaminos	5	3	1	1	14	9	10
3	Venados FC	5	3	1	1	12	10	10
4	Atletico Morelia	5	3	0	2	11	8	9
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	4	2	2	0	13	7	8
6	Club Atletico La Paz	5	2	1	2	10	6	7
7	Tapatio	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Piratas	5	2	1	2	4	3	7
9	Jaiba Brava	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
10	Cancun FC	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
11	Oaxaca	5	2	0	3	4	7	6
12	Alacranes de Durango	5	2	0	3	3	7	6
13	Dorados	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	5	0	3	2	3	7	3
15	Tepatitlan FC	5	1	0	4	4	12	3
16	Tlaxcala FC	5	0	1	4	7	14	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cancun FC	Club Atletico La Paz
Piratas	1-0 W	2-0 W
Alacranes de Durango	2-0 W	0-1 L
Atletico Morelia	1-4 L	2-4 L
Jaiba Brava	1-1 D	1-2 L
Atlante	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cancun FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cancun FC

WWDWLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
16/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
09/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	5	6	L
02/08	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	0	7	L
04/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	13	5	D
01/05	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-2	0	5	L
27/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
19/04	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
12/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W

Club Atletico La Paz

LDDLLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
15/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
08/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	5-0	1	7	W
01/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
26/07	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-4	0	7	L
26/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-2	7	9	L
23/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
18/04	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
11/04	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
04/04	Irapuato Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cancun FC vs Club Atletico La Paz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cancun FC win (53%). Probabilities: Cancun FC 53%, draw 25%, Club Atletico La Paz 22%.

How many goals are expected in Cancun FC vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Cancun FC 1.82 · Club Atletico La Paz 1.11), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cancun FC vs Club Atletico La Paz?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.