Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 30/08, 00:00

Prediction: Tlaxcala FC vs Venados FC

Team pages: Tlaxcala FC · Venados FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Tlaxcala FC1.55

Venados FC1.92

1X2

30% 24% 46%

Tlaxcala FC Draw Venados FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tlaxcala FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Venados FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tlaxcala FC 1–2–3 Venados FC (6 last)

Tlaxcala FC2-2Venados FC
Venados FC5-1Tlaxcala FC
Venados FC2-1Tlaxcala FC
Tlaxcala FC1-1Venados FC
Tlaxcala FC1-0Venados FC
Venados FC3-1Tlaxcala FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Venados FC (rating 1434 vs 1545).
H2H favours Venados FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tlaxcala FC	Venados FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.7	3.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.81

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:58

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.32 → 2.34▲	Pinn 2.34
X	3.41 → 3.45▲	Pinn 3.45
2	2.84 → 2.87▲	Pinn 2.87

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:54	2.32	3.41	2.84
02:56 +3’	2.34▲	3.45▲	2.87▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tlaxcala FC 1–2–3 Venados FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Venados FC
07/11/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	5-1 HT 3-1	Tlaxcala FC
12/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Tlaxcala FC
27/10/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Venados FC
22/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Tlaxcala FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Venados FC
22/07/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Tlaxcala FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Correcaminos	5	3	1	1	14	9	10
2	Venados FC	5	3	1	1	12	10	10
3	Universidad Guadalajara	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
4	Atletico Morelia	5	3	0	2	11	8	9
5	Mineros de Zacatecas	4	2	2	0	13	7	8
6	Club Atletico La Paz	5	2	1	2	10	6	7
7	Piratas	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
8	Tapatio	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
9	Oaxaca	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
10	Alacranes de Durango	4	2	0	2	2	5	6
11	Dorados	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
12	Jaiba Brava	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
13	Cancun FC	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
14	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	5	0	3	2	3	7	3
15	Tepatitlan FC	5	1	0	4	4	12	3
16	Tlaxcala FC	5	0	1	4	7	14	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tlaxcala FC	Venados FC
Tepatitlan FC	2-3 L	0-2 L
Dorados	2-2 D	4-2 W
Oaxaca	0-2 L	3-0 W
Mineros de Zacatecas	1-3 L	1-5 L
Universidad Guadalajara	2-4 L	2-1 W
Tapatio	0-3 L	3-2 W
Jaiba Brava	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Venados FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tlaxcala FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
16/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-2	1	5	D
07/08	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-2	4	8	L
01/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
26/07	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	4	5	L
19/04	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	8	4	D
12/04	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
08/04	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/04	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
23/03	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Venados FC

LWDWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	6	2	W
15/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-5	3	6	L
09/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	8	5	W
01/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
26/07	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	12	1	W
19/04	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
12/04	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
06/04	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
28/03	Atlante Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	4-1	1	7	W
21/03	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tlaxcala FC vs Venados FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Venados FC win (46%). Probabilities: Tlaxcala FC 30%, draw 24%, Venados FC 46%.

How many goals are expected in Tlaxcala FC vs Venados FC?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Tlaxcala FC 1.55 · Venados FC 1.92), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tlaxcala FC vs Venados FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.