Football · Chile Liga de Primera · 26/07, 02:00
Prediction: Universidad Catolica vs La Serena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.32Total
Universidad Catolica2.21
La Serena1.12
1X2
Universidad Catolica
Draw
La Serena
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Universidad Catolica
9-0-1 (W-D-L)
La Serena
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universidad Catolica
3–1–2
La Serena
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica 1609 · La Serena 1437
| Universidad Catolica | Draw | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica (rating 1609 vs 1437).
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica | La Serena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.5 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica 3–1–2 La Serena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/26 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Universidad Catolica |
| 08/11/25 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 25/05/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 1-3 HT 0-1 | La Serena |
| 23/03/23 America Friendlies | La Serena | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica |
| 10/09/22 Chile Liga de Primera | La Serena | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Universidad Catolica |
| 10/04/22 Chile Liga de Primera | Universidad Catolica | 0-2 HT 0-1 | La Serena |
Standings · Chile Liga de Primera
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 12 | 36 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 35 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Coquimbo Unido | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 24 |
| 5 | Palestino | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 6 | Huachipato | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 23 |
| 7 | Everton de Vina | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 22 |
| 8 | Nublense | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
| 9 | Deportes Limache | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 21 |
| 10 | O'Higgins | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 20 |
| 11 | Universidad de Concepcion | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 26 | 19 |
| 12 | La Serena | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportes Concepcion | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Cobresal | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 13 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 28 | 12 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universidad Catolica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | San Luis Quillota Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 05/07 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
| 01/07 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Cup |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Everton de Vina Chile Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 20/06 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Cobresal Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Huachipato Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Boca Juniors Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
La Serena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Cobreloa Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 05/07 | CD Antofagasta Chile Cup |
1-2 | 2-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 02/07 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 28/06 | Cobreloa Chile Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 24/06 | Cobresal Chile Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | CD Antofagasta Chile Cup |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/06 | Audax Italiano Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Colo Colo Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universidad Catolica vs La Serena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universidad Catolica win (61%). Probabilities: Universidad Catolica 61%, draw 22%, La Serena 17%.
How many goals are expected in Universidad Catolica vs La Serena?
The model expects 3.32 goals (Universidad Catolica 2.21 · La Serena 1.12), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Universidad Catolica vs La Serena?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.