Football · Australia Tasmania Premier League · 22/07, 12:15
Prediction: Launceston City vs Launceston United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.62Total
Launceston City3.31
Launceston United1.31
1X2
Launceston City
Draw
Launceston United
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Launceston City
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Launceston United
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Launceston City
6–0
Launceston United
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Launceston City 1537 · Launceston United 1383
| Launceston City | Draw | Launceston United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 85% | 9% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.62 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Launceston City (rating 1537 vs 1383).
- H2H favours Launceston City: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Launceston City | Launceston United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2 | 1.2 / 3.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 1.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Launceston City 6–0–0 Launceston United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston United | 1-7 HT 0-6 | Launceston City |
| 26/08/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston United | 0-11 HT 0-8 | Launceston City |
| 24/05/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston United | 1-6 HT 1-1 | Launceston City |
| 14/03/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston City | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Launceston United |
| 30/08/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston City | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Launceston United |
| 05/07/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League | Launceston City | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Launceston United |
Standings · Australia Tasmania Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Hobart | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 13 | 41 |
| 2 | Kingborough Lions | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 46 | 15 | 37 |
| 3 | Devonport City | 15 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 43 | 18 | 34 |
| 4 | Launceston City | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 25 | 27 |
| 5 | Clarence Zebras FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 24 |
| 6 | Riverside Olympic | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 23 |
| 7 | South East United FC | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 47 | 15 |
| 8 | Glenorchy Knights FC | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 14 |
| 9 | Launceston United | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 47 | 5 |
| 10 | Ulverstone | 16 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 56 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Launceston City | Launceston United |
|---|---|---|
| Kingborough Lions | 1-3 L | 1-7 L |
| Clarence Zebras FC | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| South East United FC | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Ulverstone | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Glenorchy Knights FC | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| South Hobart | 1-8 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Launceston City (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Launceston City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Devonport City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-2 | 1-8 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Launceston United Australia Tasmania Premier League |
6-0 | 7-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Launceston United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League |
1-4 | 1-7 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League |
2-3 | 4-6 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 10/04 | Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League |
0-6 | 1-7 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Launceston City vs Launceston United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Launceston City win (80%). Probabilities: Launceston City 80%, draw 11%, Launceston United 8%.
How many goals are expected in Launceston City vs Launceston United?
The model expects 4.62 goals (Launceston City 3.31 · Launceston United 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Launceston City vs Launceston United?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.