Football · Australia Tasmania Premier League · 25/07, 06:30

Prediction: Launceston United vs Devonport City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.5Total

Launceston United1.25

Devonport City3.25

1X2

8% 11% 81%

Launceston United Draw Devonport City

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-3

Recent form · 10 last

Launceston United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Devonport City 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Launceston United 0–6 Devonport City (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Launceston United 1383 · Devonport City 1552

	Launceston United	Draw	Devonport City
Our model	11%	14%	76%
Market	6%	8%	85%

Estimated total (ours) 4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Devonport City (rating 1383 vs 1552).
H2H favours Devonport City: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Launceston United	Devonport City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 3.5	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

115.00

X11.00

21.09

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.88

2 (-3)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.82

Under 4.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 15.00	Bet365 15.00
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	1.09 → 1.09	Bet365 1.09

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +2’	15.00	11.00	1.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Launceston United 0–0–6 Devonport City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Devonport City	2-0 HT 0-0	Launceston United
23/08/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Devonport City	9-2 HT 2-1	Launceston United
28/06/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Devonport City	5-2	Launceston United
26/04/25 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston United	1-8	Devonport City
03/08/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Devonport City	8-0	Launceston United
01/06/24 Australia Tasmania Premier League	Launceston United	1-6	Devonport City

Standings · Australia Tasmania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	South Hobart	16	13	2	1	57	13	41
2	Kingborough Lions	16	12	1	3	46	15	37
3	Devonport City	15	11	1	3	43	18	34
4	Launceston City	15	10	0	5	39	27	30
5	Clarence Zebras FC	16	7	3	6	28	26	24
6	Riverside Olympic	15	7	2	6	28	25	23
7	South East United FC	16	5	0	11	19	47	15
8	Glenorchy Knights FC	16	4	2	10	20	30	14
9	Launceston United	15	1	2	12	16	51	5
10	Ulverstone	16	1	1	14	12	56	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Launceston United	Devonport City
Launceston City	2-4 L	3-1 W
South East United FC	1-4 L	2-0 W
Riverside Olympic	0-1 L	4-1 W
Clarence Zebras FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Ulverstone	3-2 W	1-0 W
South Hobart	1-4 L	1-3 L
Glenorchy Knights FC	0-4 L	2-1 W
Kingborough Lions	1-7 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Devonport City (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Launceston United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-2	2-4	5	0	L
19/07	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-1	1-4	6	1	L
10/07	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
27/06	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
20/06	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	1	W
30/05	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-4	3	1	L
23/05	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	0-4	2	3	L
09/05	Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-4	1-7	0	3	L
02/05	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-3	4-6	5	4	L
18/04	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

Devonport City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
11/07	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-0	2-0	7	4	W
04/07	Riverside Olympic Australia Tasmania Premier League	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
28/06	Kingborough Lions Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/06	Clarence Zebras FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
30/05	Ulverstone Australia Tasmania Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
24/05	Launceston City Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
09/05	Glenorchy Knights FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
02/05	South Hobart Australia Tasmania Premier League	1-2	2-3	0	4	L
19/04	South East United FC Australia Tasmania Premier League	2-1	4-1	12	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Launceston United vs Devonport City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Devonport City win (81%). Probabilities: Launceston United 8%, draw 11%, Devonport City 81%.

How many goals are expected in Launceston United vs Devonport City?

The model expects 4.5 goals (Launceston United 1.25 · Devonport City 3.25), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Launceston United vs Devonport City?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.