Football · England National League North · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Bedford Town vs Hereford FC

Team pages: Bedford Town · Hereford FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Bedford Town1.37

Hereford FC1.54

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Bedford Town Draw Hereford FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bedford Town 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Hereford FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bedford Town 0–2–0 Hereford FC (2 last)

Bedford Town2-2Hereford FC
Hereford FC2-2Bedford Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bedford Town 1522 · Hereford FC 1571

	Bedford Town	Draw	Hereford FC
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hereford FC (rating 1522 vs 1571).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bedford Town	Hereford FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	2.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +10’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bedford Town 0–2–0 Hereford FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England National League North	Bedford Town	2-2 HT 2-0	Hereford FC
02/09/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	2-2 HT 0-2	Bedford Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	9	7	1	1	21	4	22
2	Oxford City	9	6	1	2	17	6	19
3	Macclesfield	9	5	3	1	12	6	18
4	Spalding United	9	5	2	2	13	6	17
5	Hebburn Town	9	5	2	2	15	15	17
6	South Shields	8	5	2	1	9	10	17
7	Buxton	9	5	1	3	18	14	16
8	Bedford Town	9	5	0	4	13	13	15
9	Chester	9	4	2	3	9	8	14
10	Morecambe	9	4	1	4	13	8	13
11	Merthyr Town	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
12	Kings Lynn Town	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
13	Harborough Town	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
14	Worksop	9	4	0	5	9	12	12
15	Scarborough Athletic	9	3	2	4	14	11	11
16	Chorley	9	3	2	4	14	16	11
17	Marine	9	3	0	6	10	11	9
18	AFC Telford	9	2	3	4	8	10	9
19	Hednesford	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
20	Southport	9	2	2	5	11	18	8
21	Brackley	8	2	2	4	7	16	8
22	Radcliffe FC	9	2	0	7	8	16	6
23	Darlington 1883	9	2	0	7	11	20	6
24	Spennymoor Town	9	1	3	5	9	19	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bedford Town	Hereford FC
Worksop	2-1 W	3-0 W
Radcliffe FC	1-0 W	3-0 W
Spennymoor Town	3-1 W	2-1 W
Southport	1-4 L	1-0 W
Buxton	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hereford FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bedford Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-1	1-2	8	4	L
08/09	Worksop England National League North	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
31/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	Southport England National League North	1-2	1-4	6	4	L
18/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	8	W
15/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	2-3	10	3	L
08/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	1	D

Hereford FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	South Shields England National League North	3-0	6-0	3	4	W
08/09	Harborough Town England National League North	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
05/09	Spennymoor Town England National League North	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
31/08	Southport England National League North	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
29/08	Chester England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
22/08	Worksop England National League North	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
18/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
15/08	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
08/08	Buxton England National League North	0-1	1-2	0	6	L
25/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-2	2-2	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bedford Town vs Hereford FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hereford FC win (41%). Probabilities: Bedford Town 33%, draw 26%, Hereford FC 41%.

How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Hereford FC?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Bedford Town 1.37 · Hereford FC 1.54), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Hereford FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.