Football · England National League North · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Merthyr Town vs Marine

Team pages: Merthyr Town · Marine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Merthyr Town1.61

Marine1.21

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Merthyr Town Draw Marine

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Merthyr Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDDDLWWD

Marine 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Merthyr Town 1–1 Marine (2 last)

Marine1-3Merthyr Town
Merthyr Town1-3Marine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1509 · Marine 1467

	Merthyr Town	Draw	Marine
Our model	46%	27%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Merthyr Town (rating 1509 vs 1467).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merthyr Town	Marine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:32 +46’	1.95	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Merthyr Town 1–0–1 Marine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 England National League North	Marine	1-3 HT 0-1	Merthyr Town
19/08/25 England National League North	Merthyr Town	1-3 HT 1-1	Marine

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	9	7	1	1	21	4	22
2	Oxford City	9	6	1	2	17	6	19
3	Macclesfield	9	5	3	1	12	6	18
4	Spalding United	9	5	2	2	13	6	17
5	Hebburn Town	9	5	2	2	15	15	17
6	South Shields	8	5	2	1	9	10	17
7	Buxton	9	5	1	3	18	14	16
8	Bedford Town	9	5	0	4	13	13	15
9	Chester	9	4	2	3	9	8	14
10	Morecambe	9	4	1	4	13	8	13
11	Merthyr Town	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
12	Kings Lynn Town	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
13	Harborough Town	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
14	Worksop	9	4	0	5	9	12	12
15	Scarborough Athletic	9	3	2	4	14	11	11
16	Chorley	9	3	2	4	14	16	11
17	Marine	9	3	0	6	10	11	9
18	AFC Telford	9	2	3	4	8	10	9
19	Hednesford	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
20	Southport	9	2	2	5	11	18	8
21	Brackley	8	2	2	4	7	16	8
22	Radcliffe FC	9	2	0	7	8	16	6
23	Darlington 1883	9	2	0	7	11	20	6
24	Spennymoor Town	9	1	3	5	9	19	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merthyr Town	Marine
Macclesfield	2-1 W	0-1 L
Chorley	1-1 D	0-2 L
South Shields	1-1 D	1-2 L
Spennymoor Town	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Merthyr Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merthyr Town

LWLDDDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
08/09	Chester England National League North	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
31/08	Buxton England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
29/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
22/08	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
18/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Hednesford England National League North	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
25/04	AFC Fylde England National League North	1-0	2-4	3	3	L

Marine

DLLLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
08/09	South Shields England National League North	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
05/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
31/08	Harborough Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Radcliffe FC England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
22/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-1	4-1	2	3	W
18/08	Chorley England National League North	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
08/08	Macclesfield England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
25/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-1	1-1	8	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs Marine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merthyr Town win (46%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 46%, draw 26%, Marine 28%.

How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Marine?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Merthyr Town 1.61 · Marine 1.21), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Marine?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.