Football · England National League North · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Chester vs Worksop

Team pages: Chester · Worksop

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Chester1.53

Worksop0.79

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Chester Draw Worksop

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chester 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Worksop 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chester 0–1–2 Worksop (3 last)

Chester0-1Worksop
Worksop2-1Chester
Worksop2-2Chester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chester 1516 · Worksop 1485

	Chester	Draw	Worksop
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Worksop: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chester	Worksop
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:06 +11’	1.61	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chester 0–1–2 Worksop

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England National League North	Chester	0-1 HT 0-1	Worksop
30/08/25 England National League North	Worksop	2-1 HT 0-0	Chester
03/10/20 England FA Cup Qualification	Worksop	2-2	Chester

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	9	7	1	1	21	4	22
2	Oxford City	9	6	1	2	17	6	19
3	Macclesfield	9	5	3	1	12	6	18
4	Spalding United	9	5	2	2	13	6	17
5	Hebburn Town	9	5	2	2	15	15	17
6	South Shields	8	5	2	1	9	10	17
7	Buxton	9	5	1	3	18	14	16
8	Bedford Town	9	5	0	4	13	13	15
9	Chester	9	4	2	3	9	8	14
10	Morecambe	9	4	1	4	13	8	13
11	Merthyr Town	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
12	Kings Lynn Town	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
13	Harborough Town	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
14	Worksop	9	4	0	5	9	12	12
15	Scarborough Athletic	9	3	2	4	14	11	11
16	Chorley	9	3	2	4	14	16	11
17	Marine	9	3	0	6	10	11	9
18	AFC Telford	9	2	3	4	8	10	9
19	Hednesford	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
20	Southport	9	2	2	5	11	18	8
21	Brackley	8	2	2	4	7	16	8
22	Radcliffe FC	9	2	0	7	8	16	6
23	Darlington 1883	9	2	0	7	11	20	6
24	Spennymoor Town	9	1	3	5	9	19	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chester	Worksop
Hebburn Town	1-1 D	0-1 L
Hereford FC	1-1 D	0-3 L
Spalding United	1-0 W	1-3 L
Darlington 1883	1-0 W	2-1 W
Chorley	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Chester (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Buxton England National League North	1-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/09	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
22/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
15/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	2-0	2-0	11	3	W
08/08	Chorley England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
29/04	Macclesfield England National League North	1-0	1-2	0	3	L

Worksop

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Southport England National League North	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
08/09	Bedford Town England National League North	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
05/09	Marine England National League North	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
31/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
29/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
22/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
18/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/04	Chorley England National League North	0-2	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chester vs Worksop?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chester win (55%). Probabilities: Chester 55%, draw 26%, Worksop 19%.

How many goals are expected in Chester vs Worksop?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Chester 1.53 · Worksop 0.79), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chester vs Worksop?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.