Football · England National League North · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Southport vs Spennymoor Town

Team pages: Southport · Spennymoor Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Southport1.54

Spennymoor Town1.29

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Southport Draw Spennymoor Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Southport 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLLLWL

Spennymoor Town 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLDLLD

Head-to-head

Southport 1–5 Spennymoor Town (6 last)

Southport2-0Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town2-0Southport
Southport1-4Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town2-0Southport
Southport1-2Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town5-1Southport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southport 1459 · Spennymoor Town 1467

	Southport	Draw	Spennymoor Town
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spennymoor Town: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southport	Spennymoor Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +10’	2.10	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southport 1–0–5 Spennymoor Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 England National League North	Southport	2-0 HT 1-0	Spennymoor Town
04/10/25 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Southport
28/01/25 England National League North	Southport	1-4 HT 0-1	Spennymoor Town
20/08/24 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	2-0 HT 0-0	Southport
06/02/24 England National League North	Southport	1-2 HT 1-1	Spennymoor Town
15/08/23 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	5-1 HT 3-1	Southport

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	9	7	1	1	21	4	22
2	Oxford City	9	6	1	2	17	6	19
3	Macclesfield	9	5	3	1	12	6	18
4	Spalding United	9	5	2	2	13	6	17
5	Hebburn Town	9	5	2	2	15	15	17
6	South Shields	8	5	2	1	9	10	17
7	Buxton	9	5	1	3	18	14	16
8	Bedford Town	9	5	0	4	13	13	15
9	Chester	9	4	2	3	9	8	14
10	Morecambe	9	4	1	4	13	8	13
11	Merthyr Town	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
12	Kings Lynn Town	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
13	Harborough Town	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
14	Worksop	9	4	0	5	9	12	12
15	Scarborough Athletic	9	3	2	4	14	11	11
16	Chorley	9	3	2	4	14	16	11
17	Marine	9	3	0	6	10	11	9
18	AFC Telford	9	2	3	4	8	10	9
19	Hednesford	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
20	Southport	9	2	2	5	11	18	8
21	Brackley	8	2	2	4	7	16	8
22	Radcliffe FC	9	2	0	7	8	16	6
23	Darlington 1883	9	2	0	7	11	20	6
24	Spennymoor Town	9	1	3	5	9	19	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southport	Spennymoor Town
Morecambe	2-1 W	1-1 D
Spalding United	0-2 L	1-3 L
Hereford FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Scarborough Athletic	1-5 L	0-3 L
Bedford Town	4-1 W	1-3 L
Hednesford	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Southport (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southport

WLDDWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Worksop England National League North	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
08/09	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
05/09	Spalding United England National League North	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
31/08	Hereford FC England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	1-5	2	1	L
22/08	Bedford Town England National League North	2-1	4-1	5	4	W
18/08	Hednesford England National League North	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
15/08	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
08/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
25/04	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-0	5	0	W

Spennymoor Town

DDWLLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Macclesfield England National League North	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
08/09	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
29/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
22/08	Oxford City England National League North	1-3	1-4	1	4	L
18/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-3	0-3	5	4	L
15/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
25/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-1	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southport vs Spennymoor Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southport win (42%). Probabilities: Southport 42%, draw 27%, Spennymoor Town 31%.

How many goals are expected in Southport vs Spennymoor Town?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Southport 1.54 · Spennymoor Town 1.29), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Southport vs Spennymoor Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.