Football · England National League North · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: South Shields vs Buxton

Team pages: South Shields · Buxton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

South Shields1.61

Buxton1.32

1X2

44% 26% 31%

South Shields Draw Buxton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

South Shields 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Buxton 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

South Shields 3–2–1 Buxton (6 last)

South Shields1-0Buxton
Buxton1-1South Shields
South Shields2-2Buxton
Buxton1-0South Shields
South Shields1-0Buxton
Buxton0-2South Shields

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · South Shields 1558 · Buxton 1529

	South Shields	Draw	Buxton
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours South Shields: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	South Shields	Buxton
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +22’	2.05	3.60	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · South Shields 3–2–1 Buxton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 England National League North	South Shields	1-0 HT 1-0	Buxton
03/01/26 England National League North	Buxton	1-1 HT 0-0	South Shields
30/08/25 England National League North	South Shields	2-2 HT 0-2	Buxton
11/02/25 England National League North	Buxton	1-0 HT 0-0	South Shields
03/09/24 England National League North	South Shields	1-0 HT 1-0	Buxton
16/03/24 England National League North	Buxton	0-2 HT 0-1	South Shields

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hereford FC	9	7	1	1	21	4	22
2	Oxford City	9	6	1	2	17	6	19
3	Macclesfield	9	5	3	1	12	6	18
4	Spalding United	9	5	2	2	13	6	17
5	Hebburn Town	9	5	2	2	15	15	17
6	South Shields	8	5	2	1	9	10	17
7	Buxton	9	5	1	3	18	14	16
8	Bedford Town	9	5	0	4	13	13	15
9	Chester	9	4	2	3	9	8	14
10	Morecambe	9	4	1	4	13	8	13
11	Merthyr Town	9	3	4	2	11	9	13
12	Kings Lynn Town	9	4	1	4	15	15	13
13	Harborough Town	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
14	Worksop	9	4	0	5	9	12	12
15	Scarborough Athletic	9	3	2	4	14	11	11
16	Chorley	9	3	2	4	14	16	11
17	Marine	9	3	0	6	10	11	9
18	AFC Telford	9	2	3	4	8	10	9
19	Hednesford	9	2	3	4	13	16	9
20	Southport	9	2	2	5	11	18	8
21	Brackley	8	2	2	4	7	16	8
22	Radcliffe FC	9	2	0	7	8	16	6
23	Darlington 1883	9	2	0	7	11	20	6
24	Spennymoor Town	9	1	3	5	9	19	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	South Shields	Buxton
Hereford FC	0-6 L	2-1 W
Merthyr Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Morecambe	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Buxton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

South Shields

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Hereford FC England National League North	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
08/09	Marine England National League North	2-0	2-1	7	4	W
05/09	Hednesford England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
31/08	Spalding United England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
18/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
15/08	Chorley England National League North	0-1	2-1	15	2	W
08/08	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
09/05	Kidderminster England National League North	0-2	0-2	9	7	L
02/05	Buxton England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	2	W

Buxton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chester England National League North	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
08/09	Brackley England National League North	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
05/09	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	0-4	9	2	L
31/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
28/08	Oxford City England National League North	2-0	3-2	4	4	W
22/08	Hebburn Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
18/08	Bedford Town England National League North	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
15/08	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
08/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
02/05	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in South Shields vs Buxton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a South Shields win (44%). Probabilities: South Shields 44%, draw 26%, Buxton 31%.

How many goals are expected in South Shields vs Buxton?

The model expects 2.92 goals (South Shields 1.61 · Buxton 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in South Shields vs Buxton?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.