Football · England National League North · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Buxton vs Hereford FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Buxton1.71

Hereford FC1.28

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Buxton Draw Hereford FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Buxton 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Hereford FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Buxton 2–1–3 Hereford FC (6 last)

Hereford FC0-2Buxton
Buxton1-2Hereford FC
Hereford FC2-1Buxton
Buxton1-2Hereford FC
Hereford FC2-2Buxton
Buxton2-1Hereford FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Buxton 1559 · Hereford FC 1522

	Buxton	Draw	Hereford FC
Our model	47%	26%	28%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hereford FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Buxton	Hereford FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	4.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +10’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Buxton 2–1–3 Hereford FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League North	Hereford FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Buxton
19/08/25 England National League North	Buxton	1-2 HT 0-2	Hereford FC
25/02/25 England National League North	Hereford FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Buxton
12/10/24 England National League North	Buxton	1-2 HT 1-1	Hereford FC
01/04/24 England National League North	Hereford FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Buxton
21/11/23 England National League North	Buxton	2-1 HT 1-0	Hereford FC

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Buxton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Scunthorpe UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
10/07	Ashton Utd UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/07	Braga Club Friendly List	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/05	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
28/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	4-2	6	4	W
25/04	Leamington England National League North	2-1	4-1	7	1	W
18/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
14/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-2	2-2	5	6	D
11/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
06/04	Worksop England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	3	W

Hereford FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Bromsgrove Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
28/07	Shrewsbury UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
25/07	Solihull Moors UK Friendlies	0-0	0-3	4	1	L
25/04	Peterborough Sports England National League North	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
21/04	Marine England National League North	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
18/04	Radcliffe FC England National League North	3-1	3-1	3	11	W
14/04	Oxford City England National League North	1-0	1-2	8	9	L
11/04	Bedford Town England National League North	0-2	2-2	6	4	D
08/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
06/04	Merthyr Town England National League North	3-0	3-0	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Buxton vs Hereford FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Buxton win (47%). Probabilities: Buxton 47%, draw 25%, Hereford FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Buxton vs Hereford FC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Buxton 1.71 · Hereford FC 1.28), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Buxton vs Hereford FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.