Football · England National League North · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Spalding United vs Oxford City
Team pages: Spalding United · Oxford City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Spalding United1.86
Oxford City1.2
1X2
Spalding United
Draw
Oxford City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Spalding United
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Oxford City
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spalding United 1566 · Oxford City 1520
| Spalding United | Draw | Oxford City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spalding United (rating 1566 vs 1520).
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spalding United | Oxford City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/33/0% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.5 | 1.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Merthyr Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Spalding United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Brackley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Buxton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Chester | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Worksop | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Macclesfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Oxford City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | South Shields | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Harborough Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kings Lynn Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Spennymoor Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | AFC Telford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chorley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Hereford FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Bedford Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Marine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Southport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Radcliffe FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spalding United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Radcliffe FC England National League North |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Chelmsford Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Bishop's Stortford Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/05 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 29/04 | Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 4-4 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Leiston England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 06/04 | Barwell England Southern Premier League Central |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/04 | Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Oxford City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Bedford Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Chesham Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Slough UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Walton & Hersham UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Hemel Hempstead Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Briton Ferry UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 18/04 | Chester England National League North |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/04 | Hereford FC England National League North |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Alfreton Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spalding United vs Oxford City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Spalding United win (52%). Probabilities: Spalding United 52%, draw 24%, Oxford City 24%.
How many goals are expected in Spalding United vs Oxford City?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Spalding United 1.86 · Oxford City 1.2), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Spalding United vs Oxford City?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.