Football · England National League North · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Worksop vs AFC Telford
Team pages: Worksop · AFC Telford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.09Total
Worksop1.48
AFC Telford1.61
1X2
Worksop
Draw
AFC Telford
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Worksop
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
AFC Telford
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Worksop
1–1
AFC Telford
(2 last)
- Worksop3-1AFC Telford
- AFC Telford2-1Worksop
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Worksop 1609 · AFC Telford 1457
| Worksop | Draw | AFC Telford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 26% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Worksop (rating 1609 vs 1457).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Worksop | AFC Telford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.3 | 2.1 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Worksop 1–0–1 AFC Telford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 England National League North | Worksop | 3-1 HT 1-0 | AFC Telford |
| 25/10/25 England National League North | AFC Telford | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Worksop |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Merthyr Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Spalding United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Brackley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Buxton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Chester | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Worksop | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Macclesfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Oxford City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | South Shields | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Harborough Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kings Lynn Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Spennymoor Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | AFC Telford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chorley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Hereford FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Bedford Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Marine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Southport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Radcliffe FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Worksop
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Sheff Utd U23 Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Mickleover Sports Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Garforth Town Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 19/07 | Barnsley FC XI Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | South Normanton Athletic Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Ilkeston Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 07/07 | Retford FC Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Hallam UK Friendlies |
3-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Chorley England National League North |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
AFC Telford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Brackley England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Tamworth UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Walsall UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Shifnal Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | Nuneaton Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Southport England National League North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Peterborough Sports England National League North |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | Kidderminster England National League North |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Worksop vs AFC Telford?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AFC Telford win (40%). Probabilities: Worksop 34%, draw 26%, AFC Telford 40%.
How many goals are expected in Worksop vs AFC Telford?
The model expects 3.09 goals (Worksop 1.48 · AFC Telford 1.61), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Worksop vs AFC Telford?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.