Football · England National League North · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Spennymoor Town vs Merthyr Town
Team pages: Spennymoor Town · Merthyr Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.49Total
Spennymoor Town2.01
Merthyr Town1.48
1X2
Spennymoor Town
Draw
Merthyr Town
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Spennymoor Town
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Merthyr Town
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spennymoor Town
2–0
Merthyr Town
(2 last)
- Merthyr Town2-3Spennymoor Town
- Spennymoor Town6-4Merthyr Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spennymoor Town 1519 · Merthyr Town 1493
| Spennymoor Town | Draw | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Spennymoor Town: 2-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spennymoor Town | Merthyr Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 5.8 | 2.6 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 2.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spennymoor Town 2–0–0 Merthyr Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 England National League North | Merthyr Town | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Spennymoor Town |
| 18/10/25 England National League North | Spennymoor Town | 6-4 HT 1-2 | Merthyr Town |
Standings · England National League North
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Merthyr Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Spalding United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Brackley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Buxton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Chester | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Worksop | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Macclesfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Oxford City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | South Shields | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Harborough Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kings Lynn Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Spennymoor Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | AFC Telford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chorley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Hereford FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Bedford Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Marine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Southport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Radcliffe FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spennymoor Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Morecambe England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Gateshead Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Halifax Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 21/07 | Bishop Auckland Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Hartlepool Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Seaton Carew FC Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Blyth Spartans Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Marine England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Worksop England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
Merthyr Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Hednesford England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Worcester City UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Bristol City U21 Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Briton Ferry UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Yeovil UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 10/07 | Cambrian United UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Marine England National League North |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spennymoor Town vs Merthyr Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Spennymoor Town win (49%). Probabilities: Spennymoor Town 49%, draw 24%, Merthyr Town 27%.
How many goals are expected in Spennymoor Town vs Merthyr Town?
The model expects 3.49 goals (Spennymoor Town 2.01 · Merthyr Town 1.48), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Spennymoor Town vs Merthyr Town?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.