Football · England National League North · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Southport vs Buxton
Team pages: Southport · Buxton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Southport1.38
Buxton1.54
1X2
Southport
Draw
Buxton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Southport
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Buxton
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southport
3–2–1
Buxton
(6 last)
- Southport0-0Buxton
- Buxton2-3Southport
- Buxton1-2Southport
- Buxton2-1Southport
- Southport3-2Buxton
- Southport2-2Buxton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southport 1506 · Buxton 1540
| Southport | Draw | Buxton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Southport: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southport | Buxton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.6 | 2.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 56/22/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.5 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southport 3–2–1 Buxton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/26 England National League North | Southport | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Buxton |
| 15/11/25 England FA Trophy | Buxton | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Southport |
| 04/11/25 England National League North | Buxton | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Southport |
| 01/02/25 England National League North | Buxton | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Southport |
| 31/08/24 England National League North | Southport | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Buxton |
| 23/03/24 England National League North | Southport | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Buxton |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Merthyr Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Spalding United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Brackley | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Buxton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Chester | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Worksop | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Macclesfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Oxford City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | South Shields | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Harborough Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kings Lynn Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Morecambe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Spennymoor Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | AFC Telford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Chorley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Darlington 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Hereford FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Bedford Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Marine | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Scarborough Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Southport | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Radcliffe FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southport
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Hebburn Town England National League North |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 31/07 | Wigan UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Warrington Town UK Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 24/07 | FC United of Manchester UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Fleetwood Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Atherton Collieries Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 21/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Leamington England National League North |
1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
Buxton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Hereford FC England National League North |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/07 | Scunthorpe UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 10/07 | Ashton Utd UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/07 | Braga Club Friendly List |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | South Shields England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 28/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
0-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Leamington England National League North |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 14/04 | Alfreton Town England National League North |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southport vs Buxton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Buxton win (40%). Probabilities: Southport 33%, draw 27%, Buxton 40%.
How many goals are expected in Southport vs Buxton?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Southport 1.38 · Buxton 1.54), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Southport vs Buxton?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.