Football · England National League North · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Hebburn Town vs Southport
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.22Total
Hebburn Town1.65
Southport1.57
1X2
Hebburn Town
Draw
Southport
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hebburn Town
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Southport
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hebburn Town 1554 · Southport 1500
| Hebburn Town | Draw | Southport | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hebburn Town (rating 1554 vs 1500).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hebburn Town | Southport | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/57/14% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 1 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.7 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hebburn Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Blyth Spartans UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Anstey Nomads Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 21/07 | Hartlepool UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Gateshead UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Warrington Rylands UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 06/04 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | Lancaster City England Northern Premier League |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
Southport
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Wigan UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Warrington Town UK Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 24/07 | FC United of Manchester UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Fleetwood Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Atherton Collieries Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | AFC Telford England National League North |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 21/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Leamington England National League North |
1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 06/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hebburn Town vs Southport?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hebburn Town win (39%). Probabilities: Hebburn Town 39%, draw 25%, Southport 36%.
How many goals are expected in Hebburn Town vs Southport?
The model expects 3.22 goals (Hebburn Town 1.65 · Southport 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hebburn Town vs Southport?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.