Football · England National League North · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Merthyr Town vs Hednesford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.21Total
Merthyr Town1.54
Hednesford1.67
1X2
Merthyr Town
Draw
Hednesford
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Merthyr Town
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Hednesford
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1478 · Hednesford 1545
| Merthyr Town | Draw | Hednesford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hednesford (rating 1478 vs 1545).
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Merthyr Town | Hednesford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.7 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 67/33/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.7 | 2 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.4 | 2.5 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Merthyr Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Worcester City UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Bristol City U21 Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Briton Ferry UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Yeovil UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 10/07 | Cambrian United UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Marine England National League North |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 8 | L |
Hednesford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Boston Utd Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Solihull Moors Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/05 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 28/04 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/04 | Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs Hednesford?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hednesford win (40%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 35%, draw 26%, Hednesford 40%.
How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs Hednesford?
The model expects 3.21 goals (Merthyr Town 1.54 · Hednesford 1.67), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs Hednesford?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.