Football · England National League North · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Chorley vs Chester
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Chorley1.09
Chester1.23
1X2
Chorley
Draw
Chester
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chorley
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Chester
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chorley
2–2–2
Chester
(6 last)
- Chester3-3Chorley
- Chorley3-0Chester
- Chorley3-2Chester
- Chester2-1Chorley
- Chorley0-2Chester
- Chester0-0Chorley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chorley 1480 · Chester 1537
| Chorley | Draw | Chester | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chester (rating 1480 vs 1537).
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chorley | Chester | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.7 | 2.4 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.6 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chorley 2–2–2 Chester
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 England National League North | Chester | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Chorley |
| 16/08/25 England National League North | Chorley | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Chester |
| 08/03/25 England National League North | Chorley | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Chester |
| 23/11/24 England National League North | Chester | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chorley |
| 23/01/24 England National League North | Chorley | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Chester |
| 15/08/23 England National League North | Chester | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chorley |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chorley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Accrington Stanley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Altrincham UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/07 | Bury Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Bamber Bridge Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Longridge Town FC Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Worksop England National League North |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 06/04 | Marine England National League North |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 03/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Chester
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 28/07 | Nantwich Town Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/07 | Hyde Utd UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Stoke U21 UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Warrington Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | Fleetwood Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Vauxhall Motors Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/04 | Macclesfield England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Oxford City England National League North |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chorley vs Chester?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chester win (39%). Probabilities: Chorley 32%, draw 28%, Chester 39%.
How many goals are expected in Chorley vs Chester?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Chorley 1.09 · Chester 1.23), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chorley vs Chester?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.