Football · England National League South · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Weston Super Mare vs Chesham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Weston Super Mare1.38
Chesham1.31
1X2
Weston Super Mare
Draw
Chesham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Weston Super Mare
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Chesham
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Weston Super Mare
2–2–2
Chesham
(6 last)
- Chesham4-0Weston Super Mare
- Weston Super Mare1-0Chesham
- Weston Super Mare1-1Chesham
- Chesham1-2Weston Super Mare
- Chesham1-1Weston Super Mare
- Weston Super Mare1-3Chesham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Weston Super Mare 1460 · Chesham 1541
| Weston Super Mare | Draw | Chesham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chesham (rating 1460 vs 1541).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Weston Super Mare | Chesham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.6 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Weston Super Mare 2–2–2 Chesham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 England National League South | Chesham | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Weston Super Mare |
| 20/09/25 England National League South | Weston Super Mare | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chesham |
| 22/03/25 England National League South | Weston Super Mare | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chesham |
| 20/08/24 England National League South | Chesham | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Weston Super Mare |
| 28/03/23 England Southern Premier League South | Chesham | 1-1 | Weston Super Mare |
| 18/10/22 England Southern Premier League South | Weston Super Mare | 1-3 | Chesham |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Weston Super Mare
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Gloucester UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Exeter UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Taunton Town UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Torquay UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | Clevedon Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 07/07 | Bristol Rovers UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 04/07 | Cullompton Rangers Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 02/05 | AFC Hornchurch England National League South |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/04 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Chesham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Oxford City Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Chertsey Town UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Wingate & Finchley Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Basingstoke UK Friendlies |
4-2 | 6-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Harborough Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Berkhamsted Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Hadley Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Dover England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Bath City England National League South |
2-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Weston Super Mare vs Chesham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Weston Super Mare win (38%). Probabilities: Weston Super Mare 38%, draw 28%, Chesham 34%.
How many goals are expected in Weston Super Mare vs Chesham?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Weston Super Mare 1.38 · Chesham 1.31), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Weston Super Mare vs Chesham?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.