Football · England National League South · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Torquay vs Horsham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.17Total
Torquay2.3
Horsham0.87
1X2
Torquay
Draw
Horsham
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Torquay
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Horsham
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Torquay
2–1
Horsham
(3 last)
- Torquay2-0Horsham
- Horsham2-1Torquay
- Torquay2-0Horsham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Torquay 1589 · Horsham 1498
| Torquay | Draw | Horsham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | 69% | 19% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torquay (rating 1589 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Torquay: 2-0-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Torquay | Horsham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.7 | 2.7 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Torquay 2–0–1 Horsham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 England National League South | Torquay | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Horsham |
| 23/08/25 England National League South | Horsham | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Torquay |
| 10/12/24 England FA Trophy | Torquay | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Horsham |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Torquay
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Exeter UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Cardiff U23 Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Plymouth UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Plymouth Parkway UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Brixham Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/07 | Cullompton Rangers Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Buckland Athletic Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | AFC Hornchurch England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
2-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 7 | W |
Horsham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Worthing UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Worthing Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Crystal Palace U23 Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Sutton Utd UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Dulwich Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/07 | Eastbourne Town UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | Eastleigh UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Chippenham Town England National League South |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Salisbury FC England National League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/04 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Torquay vs Horsham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Torquay win (69%). Probabilities: Torquay 69%, draw 19%, Horsham 12%.
How many goals are expected in Torquay vs Horsham?
The model expects 3.17 goals (Torquay 2.3 · Horsham 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Torquay vs Horsham?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.