Football · England National League South · 22/08, 16:00

Prediction: Dag & Red vs Torquay

Team pages: Dag & Red · Torquay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Dag & Red1.21

Torquay1.11

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Dag & Red Draw Torquay

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dag & Red 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLLWWW

Torquay 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWDWD

Head-to-head

Dag & Red 2–3–1 Torquay (6 last)

Dag & Red1-0Torquay
Torquay0-0Dag & Red
Torquay1-2Dag & Red
Dag & Red0-1Torquay
Dag & Red0-0Torquay
Torquay2-2Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1572 · Torquay 1562

	Dag & Red	Draw	Torquay
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	39%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dag & Red: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dag & Red	Torquay
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.6	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:46 +4’	2.30	3.40	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dag & Red 2–3–1 Torquay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England National League South	Dag & Red	1-0 HT 0-0	Torquay
11/10/25 England National League South	Torquay	0-0 HT 0-0	Dag & Red
25/03/23 England National League	Torquay	1-2 HT 1-0	Dag & Red
03/12/22 England National League	Dag & Red	0-1 HT 0-1	Torquay
02/05/22 England National League	Dag & Red	0-0 HT 0-0	Torquay
08/01/22 England National League	Torquay	2-2 HT 2-1	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
2	Weston Super Mare	3	2	1	0	6	0	7
3	Tonbridge Angels	3	2	0	1	6	2	6
4	AFC Totton	3	2	0	1	2	3	6
5	Horsham	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
6	Torquay	3	1	2	0	3	2	5
7	Salisbury FC	2	1	1	0	5	0	4
8	Folkestone Invicta	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
9	Maidstone Utd	3	1	1	1	5	3	4
10	Dorking Wanderers	3	1	1	1	3	1	4
11	Truro City	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
12	Hemel Hempstead	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
13	Maidenhead Utd	3	1	1	1	1	2	4
14	Billericay Town	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
15	Dover	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
16	Farnborough	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
16	Farnham	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
18	Braintree Town	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
19	Chelmsford	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
20	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Slough	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
22	Chesham	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
23	Walton & Hersham	3	0	0	3	1	10	0
24	Hampton & Richmond	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dag & Red

DWWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
14/08	Farnham England National League South	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	South Shields Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/07	Boreham Wood UK Friendlies	0-2	1-2	2	0	L
21/07	Crystal Palace U21 UK Friendlies	3-0	5-0	5	0	W
18/07	Hashtag United UK Friendlies	2-0	2-1	14	0	W
14/07	Hitchin UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	15	0	W
11/07	Newmarket Town Club Friendly List	0-1	4-1	–	–	W
07/07	AFC Hornchurch UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	1	D

Torquay

WWLWLWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
15/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	9	W
08/08	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
31/07	Exeter UK Friendlies	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
25/07	Cardiff U23 Club Friendly List	4-0	5-0	–	–	W
21/07	Plymouth UK Friendlies	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
18/07	Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
14/07	Plymouth Parkway UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
11/07	Brixham Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	Cullompton Rangers Club Friendly List	2-0	5-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Torquay?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (38%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 38%, draw 28%, Torquay 34%.

How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Torquay?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Dag & Red 1.21 · Torquay 1.11), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Torquay?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.