Football · England National League South · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Hemel Hempstead1.43
Chelmsford1.18
1X2
Hemel Hempstead
Draw
Chelmsford
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hemel Hempstead
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Chelmsford
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hemel Hempstead
1–3–2
Chelmsford
(6 last)
- Chelmsford1-0Hemel Hempstead
- Hemel Hempstead2-1Chelmsford
- Hemel Hempstead0-0Chelmsford
- Chelmsford0-0Hemel Hempstead
- Hemel Hempstead2-2Chelmsford
- Hemel Hempstead1-4Chelmsford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hemel Hempstead 1496 · Chelmsford 1511
| Hemel Hempstead | Draw | Chelmsford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chelmsford: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hemel Hempstead | Chelmsford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.4 | 1.3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hemel Hempstead 1–3–2 Chelmsford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/02/26 England National League South | Chelmsford | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Hemel Hempstead |
| 25/11/25 England National League South | Hemel Hempstead | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Chelmsford |
| 15/11/25 England FA Trophy | Hemel Hempstead | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chelmsford |
| 10/02/25 England National League South | Chelmsford | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hemel Hempstead |
| 21/10/24 England National League South | Hemel Hempstead | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Chelmsford |
| 20/02/24 England National League South | Hemel Hempstead | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Chelmsford |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hemel Hempstead
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | St Albans UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Kettering Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Hendon Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Wealdstone UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Oxford City Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Barnet Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/07 | QPR U23 Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 28/04 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Salisbury FC England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Torquay England National League South |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Chelmsford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Spalding United Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Witham Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Canvey Island UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Bishop's Stortford UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Eastbourne Borough England National League South |
1-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Chesham England National League South |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 14/04 | AFC Hornchurch England National League South |
2-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 06/04 | Dag & Red England National League South |
1-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 03/04 | Enfield Town England National League South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hemel Hempstead win (42%). Probabilities: Hemel Hempstead 42%, draw 27%, Chelmsford 31%.
How many goals are expected in Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Hemel Hempstead 1.43 · Chelmsford 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hemel Hempstead vs Chelmsford?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.