Football · England National League · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Gateshead vs Worthing

Team pages: Gateshead · Worthing

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Gateshead1.19

Worthing1.92

1X2

23% 24% 54%

Gateshead Draw Worthing

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gateshead 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLLLL

Worthing 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDDWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gateshead 1389 · Worthing 1514

	Gateshead	Draw	Worthing
Our model	22%	24%	53%
Market	23%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Worthing (rating 1389 vs 1514).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gateshead	Worthing
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.4	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	80/0/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.8	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:54 +3’	4.00	4.00	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gateshead	Worthing
Wealdstone	0-4 L	1-0 W
Forest Green	0-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Worthing (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gateshead

LWLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Wealdstone England National League	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
19/09	Southend England National League	0-6	1-6	4	2	L
16/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
05/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
31/08	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
28/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
22/08	Yeovil England National League	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
15/08	Woking England National League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
08/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-1	1-2	8	2	L

Worthing

WLWLLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Halifax England National League	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
19/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
15/09	AFC Hornchurch England National League	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/09	Barrow England National League	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
05/09	AFC Fylde England National League	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
31/08	Boreham Wood England National League	1-0	2-3	6	4	L
28/08	Tamworth England National League	1-0	2-3	3	9	L
22/08	Wealdstone England National League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
15/08	Forest Green England National League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
08/08	Carlisle England National League	0-1	3-2	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gateshead vs Worthing?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Worthing win (54%). Probabilities: Gateshead 23%, draw 24%, Worthing 54%.

How many goals are expected in Gateshead vs Worthing?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Gateshead 1.19 · Worthing 1.92), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gateshead vs Worthing?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.