Football · England National League · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Southend vs AFC Fylde

Team pages: Southend · AFC Fylde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Southend2.18

AFC Fylde1.42

1X2

54% 23% 24%

Southend Draw AFC Fylde

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Southend 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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AFC Fylde 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Southend 2–2 AFC Fylde (4 last)

Southend2-0AFC Fylde
AFC Fylde2-1Southend
AFC Fylde0-2Southend
Southend1-2AFC Fylde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Southend 1544 · AFC Fylde 1553

	Southend	Draw	AFC Fylde
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	53%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Southend	AFC Fylde
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	3.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +17’	1.70	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Southend 2–0–2 AFC Fylde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/01/25 England National League	Southend	2-0 HT 1-0	AFC Fylde
17/09/24 England National League	AFC Fylde	2-1 HT 1-0	Southend
13/04/24 England National League	AFC Fylde	0-2 HT 0-0	Southend
23/09/23 England National League	Southend	1-2 HT 0-1	AFC Fylde

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Southend	AFC Fylde
Tamworth	3-1 W	2-1 W
Yeovil	3-2 W	4-1 W
Woking	1-1 D	2-3 L
Solihull Moors	3-1 W	3-1 W
Altrincham	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Southend (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Southend

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Barrow England National League	0-0	2-4	5	6	L
19/09	Gateshead England National League	6-0	6-1	3	2	W
15/09	Tamworth England National League	0-0	3-1	9	1	W
12/09	Carlisle England National League	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
05/09	Yeovil England National League	0-1	3-2	9	4	W
31/08	Woking England National League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
28/08	Kidderminster England National League	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	Solihull Moors England National League	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
15/08	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	1-0	11	5	W
08/08	Altrincham England National League	1-1	3-1	1	5	W

AFC Fylde

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	1-0	14	5	W
19/09	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-2	4	7	L
15/09	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Yeovil England National League	2-0	4-1	3	4	W
05/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
31/08	Solihull Moors England National League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
28/08	Forest Green England National League	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
22/08	Woking England National League	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
15/08	Tamworth England National League	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
08/08	Wealdstone England National League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Southend vs AFC Fylde?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Southend win (54%). Probabilities: Southend 54%, draw 23%, AFC Fylde 24%.

How many goals are expected in Southend vs AFC Fylde?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Southend 2.18 · AFC Fylde 1.42), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Southend vs AFC Fylde?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.