Football · England National League · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch

Team pages: Harrogate Town · AFC Hornchurch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Harrogate Town2.09

AFC Hornchurch1.11

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Harrogate Town Draw AFC Hornchurch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Harrogate Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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AFC Hornchurch 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Harrogate Town 1542 · AFC Hornchurch 1490

	Harrogate Town	Draw	AFC Hornchurch
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harrogate Town (rating 1542 vs 1490).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Harrogate Town	AFC Hornchurch
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:54 +3’	1.55	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Harrogate Town	AFC Hornchurch
Scunthorpe	2-0 W	1-0 W
Barrow	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Harrogate Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
19/09	Boreham Wood England National League	1-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
12/09	Tamworth England National League	2-1	3-1	10	7	W
05/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
31/08	Gateshead England National League	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
28/08	Aldershot England National League	0-3	1-3	5	4	L
22/08	Barrow England National League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	3-1	1	0	W
08/08	Solihull Moors England National League	1-0	5-2	8	1	W

AFC Hornchurch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Altrincham England National League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
19/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
15/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
12/09	Halifax England National League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
05/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/08	Boston Utd England National League	1-2	3-2	5	2	W
28/08	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Carlisle England National League	0-1	1-4	7	1	L
15/08	Barrow England National League	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
08/08	Kidderminster England National League	3-0	3-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Harrogate Town win (59%). Probabilities: Harrogate Town 59%, draw 23%, AFC Hornchurch 18%.

How many goals are expected in Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Harrogate Town 2.09 · AFC Hornchurch 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.