Football · England National League · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Gateshead vs Altrincham

Team pages: Gateshead · Altrincham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Gateshead1.25

Altrincham1.61

1X2

29% 26% 45%

Gateshead Draw Altrincham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Gateshead 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLL

Altrincham 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Gateshead 1–1–4 Altrincham (6 last)

Altrincham3-1Gateshead
Gateshead0-2Altrincham
Gateshead0-1Altrincham
Altrincham2-2Gateshead
Altrincham2-3Gateshead
Gateshead0-2Altrincham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gateshead 1411 · Altrincham 1532

	Gateshead	Draw	Altrincham
Our model	29%	27%	45%
Market	29%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Altrincham (rating 1411 vs 1532).
H2H favours Altrincham: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gateshead	Altrincham
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.3	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.2	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	2.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
19:33 +4’	3.10	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gateshead 1–1–4 Altrincham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League	Altrincham	3-1 HT 2-1	Gateshead
03/09/25 England National League	Gateshead	0-2 HT 0-2	Altrincham
15/02/25 England National League	Gateshead	0-1 HT 0-1	Altrincham
19/10/24 England National League	Altrincham	2-2 HT 1-2	Gateshead
23/03/24 England National League	Altrincham	2-3 HT 1-0	Gateshead
07/10/23 England National League	Gateshead	0-2 HT 0-0	Altrincham

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	9	7	2	0	23	11	23
2	Southend	9	6	2	1	23	12	20
3	Kidderminster	9	5	3	1	13	7	18
4	AFC Fylde	9	5	2	2	20	13	17
5	Harrogate Town	9	5	1	3	20	16	16
6	Sutton Utd	9	5	1	3	10	10	16
7	Yeovil	9	4	3	2	18	14	15
8	Aldershot	9	4	3	2	10	7	15
9	AFC Hornchurch	9	5	0	4	11	12	15
10	Altrincham	9	5	0	4	12	15	15
11	Worthing	9	4	2	3	17	15	14
12	Eastleigh	9	4	2	3	11	10	14
13	Halifax	9	4	1	4	14	11	13
14	Forest Green	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
15	Boston Utd	9	3	2	4	13	13	11
16	Carlisle	9	2	4	3	16	14	10
17	Barrow	9	2	3	4	11	12	9
18	Woking	9	2	3	4	10	12	9
19	Hartlepool	9	3	0	6	7	11	9
20	Wealdstone	9	2	2	5	11	15	8
21	Tamworth	9	2	2	5	16	23	8
22	Scunthorpe	9	2	1	6	11	15	7
23	Solihull Moors	9	1	1	7	9	23	4
24	Gateshead	9	1	1	7	6	20	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gateshead	Altrincham
Southend	1-6 L	1-3 L
Forest Green	0-4 L	2-1 W
Sutton Utd	0-1 L	0-1 L
Woking	2-0 W	1-5 L
Eastleigh	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Altrincham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gateshead

LLWLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Southend England National League	0-6	1-6	4	2	L
16/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
12/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
05/09	Solihull Moors England National League	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
31/08	Harrogate Town England National League	0-0	1-2	1	1	L
28/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
22/08	Yeovil England National League	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
15/08	Woking England National League	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
08/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
25/04	Altrincham England National League	1-2	1-3	6	0	L

Altrincham

WLLLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	AFC Fylde England National League	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
16/09	Hartlepool England National League	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
12/09	Woking England National League	1-3	1-5	8	3	L
04/09	Eastleigh England National League	1-1	2-1	1	3	W
31/08	Forest Green England National League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
28/08	Halifax England National League	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
22/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
15/08	Sutton Utd England National League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
08/08	Southend England National League	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
25/04	Gateshead England National League	2-1	3-1	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gateshead vs Altrincham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Altrincham win (45%). Probabilities: Gateshead 29%, draw 26%, Altrincham 45%.

How many goals are expected in Gateshead vs Altrincham?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Gateshead 1.25 · Altrincham 1.61), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gateshead vs Altrincham?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.