Football · England National League · 09/10, 20:45

Prediction: Sutton Utd vs Boreham Wood

Team pages: Sutton Utd · Boreham Wood

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Sutton Utd1.09

Boreham Wood1.81

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Sutton Utd Draw Boreham Wood

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sutton Utd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWDDLD

Boreham Wood 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Sutton Utd 3–1–2 Boreham Wood (6 last)

Boreham Wood1-0Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd3-4Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood0-0Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd2-0Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood0-1Sutton Utd
Boreham Wood1-2Sutton Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sutton Utd 1469 · Boreham Wood 1622

	Sutton Utd	Draw	Boreham Wood
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boreham Wood (rating 1469 vs 1622).
H2H favours Sutton Utd: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sutton Utd	Boreham Wood
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	2.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.90

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.26 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.76

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +26’	4.10	3.90	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:54 +8’	4.21	3.72	1.77
20:10 +106’	4.26▲	3.74▲	1.76▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutton Utd 3–1–2 Boreham Wood

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League	Boreham Wood	1-0 HT 1-0	Sutton Utd
03/09/25 England National League	Sutton Utd	3-4 HT 2-1	Boreham Wood
02/04/21 England National League	Boreham Wood	0-0 HT 0-0	Sutton Utd
13/02/21 England National League	Sutton Utd	2-0 HT 1-0	Boreham Wood
17/08/19 England National League	Boreham Wood	0-1 HT 0-0	Sutton Utd
06/04/19 England National League	Boreham Wood	1-2 HT 1-1	Sutton Utd

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	12	10	2	0	32	13	32
2	Harrogate Town	12	8	1	3	28	17	25
3	Southend	12	7	3	2	29	18	24
4	Yeovil	12	6	4	2	26	15	22
5	Worthing	12	6	3	3	22	18	21
6	Altrincham	12	7	0	5	17	18	21
7	AFC Fylde	12	6	2	4	22	18	20
8	Kidderminster	12	5	4	3	15	12	19
9	Barrow	12	5	3	4	20	15	18
10	Aldershot	12	5	3	4	17	13	18
11	Sutton Utd	12	5	3	4	14	16	18
12	AFC Hornchurch	12	6	0	6	13	19	18
13	Halifax	12	5	2	5	18	14	17
14	Carlisle	12	4	4	4	23	20	16
15	Woking	12	4	3	5	20	19	15
16	Forest Green	11	4	3	4	17	18	15
17	Eastleigh	12	4	3	5	14	18	15
18	Tamworth	12	4	2	6	20	28	14
19	Wealdstone	12	3	3	6	17	18	12
20	Boston Utd	12	3	3	6	14	21	12
21	Scunthorpe	11	3	1	7	15	19	10
22	Hartlepool	12	3	0	9	8	17	9
23	Solihull Moors	12	2	1	9	13	30	7
24	Gateshead	12	1	1	10	7	27	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sutton Utd	Boreham Wood
Kidderminster	1-1 D	3-1 W
Forest Green	3-3 D	3-0 W
Eastleigh	2-1 W	1-1 D
Scunthorpe	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Boreham Wood (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sutton Utd

WWLLLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
30/09	Tamworth England National League	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
26/09	Forest Green England National League	0-1	3-3	7	7	D
19/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
15/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-0	2-1	7	7	W
12/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
05/09	Barrow England National League	0-1	0-3	6	10	L
31/08	Wealdstone England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
28/08	Gateshead England National League	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
22/08	Hartlepool England National League	2-1	2-1	4	5	W

Boreham Wood

WWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Altrincham England National League	0-1	3-1	4	7	W
29/09	Kidderminster England National League	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
26/09	Solihull Moors England National League	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
19/09	Harrogate Town England National League	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
16/09	Scunthorpe England National League	0-0	2-1	10	3	W
12/09	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	Carlisle England National League	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
31/08	Worthing England National League	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
27/08	Boston Utd England National League	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
22/08	Forest Green England National League	2-0	3-0	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sutton Utd vs Boreham Wood?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Boreham Wood win (54%). Probabilities: Sutton Utd 22%, draw 24%, Boreham Wood 54%.

How many goals are expected in Sutton Utd vs Boreham Wood?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Sutton Utd 1.09 · Boreham Wood 1.81), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Boreham Wood?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.