Football · England National League · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town

Team pages: Hartlepool · Harrogate Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Hartlepool1.38

Harrogate Town1.55

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Hartlepool Draw Harrogate Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartlepool 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Harrogate Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hartlepool 3–1–2 Harrogate Town (6 last)

Hartlepool1-2Harrogate Town
Hartlepool3-3Harrogate Town
Hartlepool3-1Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town2-1Hartlepool
Hartlepool2-0Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town1-2Hartlepool

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hartlepool 1434 · Harrogate Town 1534

	Hartlepool	Draw	Harrogate Town
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	33%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harrogate Town (rating 1434 vs 1534).
H2H favours Hartlepool: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartlepool	Harrogate Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.94
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.65 ★
2	2.15 → 2.25▲	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +11’	2.88	3.50	2.15
17:45 +12’	2.50▼	3.40▼	2.45▲
19:35 +19’	2.75▲	3.40	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:19 +38’	2.94	3.65	2.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartlepool 3–1–2 Harrogate Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/07/23 Club Friendly List	Hartlepool	1-2 HT 0-1	Harrogate Town
01/01/23 England League 2	Hartlepool	3-3 HT 1-1	Harrogate Town
26/11/22 England FA Cup	Hartlepool	3-1 HT 2-0	Harrogate Town
15/10/22 England League 2	Harrogate Town	2-1 HT 2-0	Hartlepool
30/08/22 England EFL Trophy	Hartlepool	2-0 HT 2-0	Harrogate Town
05/03/22 England League 2	Harrogate Town	1-2 HT 1-1	Hartlepool

Standings · England National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	10	8	2	0	26	11	26
2	Southend	10	6	2	2	25	16	20
3	AFC Fylde	10	6	2	2	21	13	20
4	Harrogate Town	10	6	1	3	24	17	19
5	Aldershot	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
6	Yeovil	10	5	3	2	19	14	18
7	Kidderminster	10	5	3	2	13	8	18
8	Altrincham	10	6	0	4	15	15	18
9	Worthing	10	5	2	3	19	16	17
10	Sutton Utd	10	5	2	3	13	13	17
11	AFC Hornchurch	10	5	0	5	11	15	15
12	Forest Green	10	4	2	4	16	17	14
13	Eastleigh	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
14	Halifax	10	4	1	5	15	13	13
15	Barrow	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
15	Woking	10	3	3	4	15	14	12
17	Wealdstone	10	3	2	5	15	15	11
18	Boston Utd	10	3	2	5	13	14	11
19	Carlisle	10	2	4	4	18	19	10
20	Scunthorpe	10	3	1	6	15	16	10
21	Hartlepool	10	3	0	7	8	15	9
22	Tamworth	10	2	2	6	17	28	8
23	Solihull Moors	10	1	1	8	9	26	4
24	Gateshead	10	1	1	8	6	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartlepool	Harrogate Town
Scunthorpe	1-4 L	2-0 W
Eastleigh	0-1 L	4-1 W
Aldershot	1-0 W	1-3 L
Barrow	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartlepool

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-2	1-4	5	4	L
19/09	Worthing England National League	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
16/09	Altrincham England National League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
11/09	Kidderminster England National League	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
05/09	Woking England National League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
01/09	Halifax England National League	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
28/08	Eastleigh England National League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
22/08	Sutton Utd England National League	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	Aldershot England National League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
08/08	Barrow England National League	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Harrogate Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Eastleigh England National League	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
19/09	Boreham Wood England National League	1-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/09	AFC Fylde England National League	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
12/09	Tamworth England National League	2-1	3-1	10	7	W
05/09	Scunthorpe England National League	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
31/08	Gateshead England National League	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
28/08	Aldershot England National League	0-3	1-3	5	4	L
22/08	Barrow England National League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/08	Wealdstone England National League	1-1	3-1	1	0	W
08/08	Solihull Moors England National League	1-0	5-2	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Harrogate Town win (40%). Probabilities: Hartlepool 33%, draw 27%, Harrogate Town 40%.

How many goals are expected in Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Hartlepool 1.38 · Harrogate Town 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartlepool vs Harrogate Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.